Coloured or female US President?

[Half Bottle]

Indeed. We just need to repeal the 22nd amendment..........

On the contrary, George just needs to get Laura to run.

[Sabre]

Indeed. We just need to repeal the 22nd amendment..........

On the contrary, George just needs to get Laura to run.

Brilliant!

[Schorsch]

Indeed. We just need to repeal the 22nd amendment..........

On the contrary, George just needs to get Laura to run.

Ah, boring. She may be female, but that's it.
In reality, he needs Condi to run.
She is
- black
- female
- conservative
- has political experience
- no scandals, actually, no private life at all

[Half Bottle]

Well, back to reality...

Fascinating results last night as it appears that Clinton and Obama were nearly equal in their delegate count. The next several states on the docket offer advantages to Obama -- can he take advantage of them? Will he be able to mount enough of a surge that he can win the nomination before the convention? Even if the Florida and Michigan delegates are seated?

I say all of this because I presume the bar for getting the nomination is higher for Obama. At some point, he must close the deal and start winning more primaries. The longer it appears to be a tie, the more that favors Clinton because of her advantages with party insiders and the potential for seating those contested FL and MI delegates.

[tds]

Well, back to reality...

Fascinating results last night as it appears that Clinton and Obama were nearly equal in their delegate count. The next several states on the docket offer advantages to Obama -- can he take advantage of them? Will he be able to mount enough of a surge that he can win the nomination before the convention? Even if the Florida and Michigan delegates are seated?

I say all of this because I presume the bar for getting the nomination is higher for Obama. At some point, he must close the deal and start winning more primaries. The longer it appears to be a tie, the more that favors Clinton because of her advantages with party insiders and the potential for seating those contested FL and MI delegates.

The other thing to come out of yesterday's results is the lack of support for McCain in 'traditional' Red states.

Why? Will these people still turn out and vote Republican if McCain is nominated? And is a Clinton nomination counterproductive in motivating them, in the absence of any enthusiasm for 'their' candidate?

[Pipe]

Indeed. We just need to repeal the 22nd amendment..........

On the contrary, George just needs to get Laura to run.

Ah, boring. She may be female, but that's it.
In reality, he needs Condi to run.
She is
- black
- female
- conservative
- has political experience
- no scandals, actually, no private life at all

She has WHAT?

[Half Bottle]

With McCain's victories last night, there is one more historically interesting outcome looming for 2008: it appears nearly certain that the first sitting Senator since JFK will be elected president this November.

[Giles]

Nader

[David Hilditch]

HB, I was interested also to notice that Obama did well in red states. Why was this ?

Wild thought - if Huckabee joined McCain as vice-presidential nominee, this ticket could be very powerful in uniting Republican interests geographically and in respect of social policy.

[David Hilditch]

Nader

Bloomberg.

[Half Bottle]

HB, I was interested also to notice that Obama did well in red states. Why was this ?

Obama is generally thought to have done well in the south because of the disproportionately high percentage of black voters among the democratic base in those states. As for the western and upper midwestern states, I think he focused more of his money and organization in those states than did Clinton because he saw it as a way to blunt her early lead in California and the northeast.

The next week will be very interesting. It's possible that Obama could win 5 or 6 out of the seven nominating contests this week. If he does, is he then labled the frontrunner even if the delegate split remains quite close (as it almost surely will)? We Virginian's cast our votes on Tuesday and they matter for the first time in ages.

Wild thought - if Huckabee joined McCain as vice-presidential nominee, this ticket could be very powerful in uniting Republican interests geographically and in respect of social policy.

I agree. McCain himself is the bridge to those different geographic regions, but the selection of Huckabee could tamp down discontent on the right and solidify the south against any possible democratic push.

[Carlos G.]

Are any of the nominees comitting themselves in a clear way to get US troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan in a reasonably short period of time, or are the political debates more centered on so-called domestic issues?

[Half Bottle]

Are any of the nominees comitting themselves in a clear way to get US troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan in a reasonably short period of time, or are the political debates more centered on so-called domestic issues?

Only Ron Paul, right Brad?

[David Hilditch]

Are any of the nominees comitting themselves in a clear way to get US troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan in a reasonably short period of time, or are the political debates more centered on so-called domestic issues?

To add to HB, McCain will keep them there for 100 years if necesseary, while Obama and Clinton have expressed various formulas which would get a large proportion out in a year or so but leave some there for force/civilian protection and counter-intelligence. Clinton is a little more conservative on this issue, I'd say, but they both leave avenues of wiggle room for themselves. Generally, everyone seems more willing to remain in Afghanistan than in Iraq. Afghanistan is now considered the "good" war. As I have said before, the Americans will be in Iraq in one way or another for many many years to come. Iraq is featuring less prominently in the primary series, but I suspect it may come back to being a prominent issue in the general election.

[Half Bottle]

Iraq is featuring less prominently in the primary series, but I suspect it may come back to being a prominent issue in the general election.

I think Iraq as a general election issue is nearly certain. If the perception is of continued tactical improvement (i.e., the surge is "working", at least militarily and modestly), then McCain would try to use Iraq to his advantage. If things start getting worse again, then the eventual democratic nominee will work hard to hang it around McCain's neck.

[Carlos G.]

Read today Hillary had to borrow her campaign USD 5 million because they're running out of funds.

[tds]

Romney's just pulled out, which clears things up.

[Half Bottle]

Romney's just pulled out, which clears things up.

Of course, pulling out is a just a formality when the the electorate has effectively locked her knees together.

[tds]

Of course, pulling out is a just a formality when the the electorate has effectively locked her knees together.

So McCain vs Clinton is looking very possible. Isn't this your previously postulated 'worst possible' matchup for the Democrats?

[Half Bottle]

So McCain vs Clinton is looking very possible. Isn't this your previously postulated 'worst possible' matchup for the Democrats?

Yes. I think that's the matchup that most favors the GOP. There is another school of thought that McCain can more easily beat Obama because of: 1) a potential glass jaw; or, 2) racism. But I think that McCain can compete more effectively for political independents than Clinton. McCain's biggest liability will be whether he can rally enough of his base to get out to the polls, given the animosity toward's his candidacy on the right.

[tds]

McCain's biggest liability will be whether he can rally enough of his base to get out to the polls, given the animosity toward's his candidacy on the right.

Right... I thought the problem with McCain vs Clinton was not so much that she can't compete for independents, but that she will unify the right (who truly despise her) behind a candidate they are otherwise not especially keen on.

[Half Bottle]

McCain's biggest liability will be whether he can rally enough of his base to get out to the polls, given the animosity toward's his candidacy on the right.

Right... I thought the problem with McCain vs Clinton was not so much that she can't compete for independents, but that she will unify the right (who truly despise her) behind a candidate they are otherwise not especially keen on.

Yes, I agree with that, too. A Clinton candidacy would help McCain shore up the right more than an Obama candidacy would. So, it's both factors working against Clinton should she be the nominee. She can still win, though, as the overall atmospherics do favor the democrats (just look at the turnout in the primaries) and the odds of making it from February until November without some really bad headlines in Iraq are probably low.

[flyboy2548m]

So, it looks to me we're fixing to have an A-4 pilot as President.

[Sickbag]

So, it looks to me we're fixing to have an A-4 pilot as President.

He can't be any worse then the F-102 pilot

[David Hilditch]

....She can still win, though, as the overall atmospherics do favor the democrats (just look at the turnout in the primaries) and the odds of making it from February until November without some really bad headlines in Iraq are probably low.

I also think Clinton has an advantage on the economy. If the economy were to take a further turn for the worse, she has by far the best credentials on this subject. She is also disciplined and can master a brief on such matters quickly. McCain has at least admitted he's hopeless on economics, while I think the man who offers hope is also pretty hopeless and vague on the subject too.