PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby monchavo » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:57 am

PIA, Pakistan's national airline, has grounded a third of its pilots for having fake licenses
This could lead to PIA being banned from western airspace if true.

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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby KPryor » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:24 pm

Wow. No idea what else to say but wow. Definitely should result in banning from everyone's airspace till that mess gets sorted out.
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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby KPryor » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:28 pm

I'm betting a flight attendant would go to the cockpit before each flight and say what's in this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmHeP9Sve48
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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby Gabriel » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:37 pm

PIA, Pakistan's national airline, has grounded a third of its pilots for having fake licenses
This could lead to PIA being banned from western airspace if true.
Just PIA? I'd say Pakistan's CAA and hence all airlines they oversee.

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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby Gabriel » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:40 pm

Wow. No idea what else to say but wow. Definitely should result in banning from everyone's airspace till the mess that caused that mess and the mess that allowed that mess get sorted out.
Fixed. Fake pilots is not the problem. It is one of the symptoms. The PIA accident? Another symptom.

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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby Gabriel » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:49 pm

EASA just suspended PIA's authorization

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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby 3WE » Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:57 pm

I'm betting a flight attendant would go to the cockpit before each flight and say what's in this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmHeP9Sve48
Another relevant Airplane quote is "we'd be better off with an amateur".

I know Gabieeeee and Meeee would like to be "that amateur" (acknowledging some flaws with that thinkning).

Of course, it would need to be Gabieee OR me, and NOT_Both. And we might still make a gear-up landing...but the initial touchdown would probably include wheelies.

He would want to do a 360 and I would want to power back, get dirty and dive.

He would engage in very lengthy analysis of why a 360 is better. (He could simply say, "flyboy heavily indicated that a 360 was a preferred course of action")

Anyway, we'd be there debating, and would land gear-up, and we[no italics] know the rest of the story. In fact, maybe that's sort of what happened?

Based upon the latest update, as Evan would say, "We need more regulatory oversight." While he sometimes oversimplifies things, it seems as though it might be valid in this case. Said oversight seems to be kicking in.

By the way, anyone seen a CVR transcript to have any idea of what they were thinking, if they were acting rational or compromised, etc?
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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby Gabriel » Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:29 pm

I'm betting a flight attendant would go to the cockpit before each flight and say what's in this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmHeP9Sve48
Another relevant Airplane quote is "we'd be better off with an amateur".

I know Gabieeeee and Meeee would like to be "that amateur" (acknowledging some flaws with that thinkning).

Of course, it would need to be Gabieee OR me, and NOT_Both. And we might still make a gear-up landing...but the initial touchdown would probably include wheelies.

He would want to do a 360 and I would want to power back, get dirty and dive.

He would engage in very lengthy analysis of why a 360 is better. (He could simply say, "flyboy heavily indicated that a 360 was a preferred course of action")
I seems you don't know me that well after all.

I could be the guy in this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWjjBScQ4do

Note how he goes from 500 fpm to 2000 fpm by "ditiyng" the plane (by applying full flaps and full-rudder slip, look at the ball).
Note also how:
- He does not exceed the flaps speed (89 knots)
- He keeps the speed quite stable between 70 and 80 knots, despite the vertical speed changing from 2000 to 300 and then back to 500.

Now, in the case of the Tomahawk, if with all these measures I still need to point the nose so down that I would ovespeed the flaps, or if I keep the flaps retracted to avoid overspeed would have me crossing the threshold at 120 knots (or eve at 90), I go around or do a 360.

Or in the PIA, if all the attempts are not enough to stabilize the approach by 500 ft, I go around. Or... I may perceive that achieving a stabilized approach by 500' will be too extreme and decide to do a 360 to avoid a go around.

But there has to be a go-nogo point.

You cannot cross the threshold at 210 knots with a flaps setting that puts you not only in flaps overspeed, but also would keep you in overspeed even if you retracted the flaps 1 point, with a mirad of master warnings, EGPWS warning and ECAM messages, while you are discussing the COVID crisis with your FO, and not go around.

In short, I would try to salvage the approach if I think I have a fair chance of success of doing it without engaging in aerobatics or exceeding the airplane limitations.
If I think the chances are not so good, then I would do a 360.
If I think that the chances good and I try and I am failing at it, I would go around no latter that my decision point (over the threshold in the Tomahawk, 500ft in a transport category jet in VMC) and without intentionally exceeding the airplane limitations.
By the way, anyone seen a CVR transcript to have any idea of what they were thinking, if they were acting rational or compromised, etc?
No CVR transcript was released, but this is from the statement of Pakistan's Aviation Minister while introducing the preliminary report:
Both flight crew and ATC failed to follow procedures, the pilots discussed Coronavirus and were not focused on their piloting tasks, when ATC advised about altitude the crew replied they would manage it and again discussed Coronavirus. The crew was overconfident and not focused. The captain's last three words were 'Ya Allah', 'Ya Allah', 'Ya Allah'.
(I left the last sentence only to show that he is talking with knowledge of the content of the CVR. Otherwise the last sentence is irrelevant to me. Oh my God oh my God oh my God is the least that I would say 2 seconds before crashing into buildings)

There is nothing in the preliminary report that indicates any specific human factor that would explain this reckless behavior by the flight crew.

That's why I said that my bet is that it is not that this crew flew so horribly this time. This was rather something unusual and accepted by the pilots of the airline. Only that this time it ended up badly. Had they ignored ATC instructions and recommendations to abandon the approach, flown a crazy fast and high unstabilized approach, exceeded all the flaps limit speeds, ignored all the master warning and GPWS alarms, nor done the checklist, not enforced the stabilized approach criteria by the decision gate, crossed the threshold 70 knots above Vref, touched down 4500 ft past the threshold and 3000 ft past the touchdown zone while still doing 20 knots faster than Vref, and NOT had the gear up, we would have never learned of this, as we never learned of all the God knows how many cases prior to this when they did very similar things and got away with it.

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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby 3WE » Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:08 pm

***I seems you don't know me that well after all.

I could be the guy in this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWjjBScQ4do ***
I dunno...there's also this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MSIKE38wvE (Posted this a few years ago)

All fun aside, neither of "you" nor "me" forgot to put the gear down on these two youtubes.
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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby 3WE » Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:31 pm

For the record, I think we should focus more on keeping the landing gear down, than "steep approaches".

Although, there might be something to say for being more strict about the 500 or 1000 ft stabilized approach criteria...
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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby 3WE » Sun Jul 26, 2020 1:23 pm

Gabriel:

Sure, the descent contributed to the crash.

But so did the take off, getting out of bed, the decision to go around, AND the apparent culture of questionable pilots.

Pilots should be able to do slam dunks (see footnote); but have the discipline to be “on target” at the threshold with gear down. (or maybe even at the magical Imaginary “gate”.)

Evan’s desire is misplaced: to over analyze the descent with autopilot and auto throttle modes and doesn’t address Uber basic fundamental SA of speed and rather important checklists. (And yeah, anal-retentive attention to procedure or even half-assed attention to procedure.)

Indeed, more oversight seems appropriate.

Footnote: ATC, medical emergencies, mechanical issues can all cause pilots to hurry up and push the limits- that’s why I won’t blame the descent as much as all around fubars.
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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby Gabriel » Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:13 pm

Why do you address your last post to me? How is your last post different than my last post in this thread? (right above your last 3 consecutive posts)

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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby 3WE » Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:21 pm

Why do you address your last post to me? How is your last post different than my last post in this thread? (right above your last 3 consecutive posts)
Evanie is arguing with me. Perhaps you are not_arguing.
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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby Gabriel » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:24 am

Why do you address your last post to me? How is your last post different than my last post in this thread? (right above your last 3 consecutive posts)
Evanie is arguing with me. Perhaps you are not_arguing.
Well, I was arguing with you when you said that the main problem by large was the gear and the rest were sort of minor contributing factors, and that I encouraged a super smooth descent and approach all the times.

I made clear, and you seemed to have eventually agreed, that I am fairly ok with any reasonable descent profile that is not super extreme and crazy as long as:
- You don't exceed airplane limitations (like overspeeding the flaps), AND
- You reach a stabilized approach (on track, on slope, on speed, configured for landing, landing checklist complete) at some point before touchdown (I mentioned over the numbers for a GA piston single and 500 ft AGL for a transport category jet in VMC)

In this PIA accident, these 2 criteria were not met and actually missed by a lot, and THAT as a super strong factor both in the pilots landing with the gear inadvertently up and in the severity of the outcome once they did land with the gear up. And that this kind of flying, which apparently was normal in PIA, was bound to cause an accident sooner rather than later related with the gear or anything else (overrun, CFIT, loss of control, badly bounced landing, etc...).

Had they not re-retracted the gear and landed, and had everything else remained the same, they would have probably gotten away with it and nobody outside of the airline would have ever known it, but it would have still been a totally unacceptable, reckless and dangerous flying, and not due to the first 30,000 ft of the descent, and this type of flying, this copmany culture, would still have caused an accident another day with almost certainty.

I recommended this a few times in the past: Watch the movie Whisky Romeo Zulu. It is a fiction movie strongly based on a true story of the culture of an airline (and the aviation authorities) surrounding an accident of a LAPA 737 registration LV-WRX (hence the title of the movie). You will see there how the accident ended up happening due to a horribly strong pilot error and lack of CRM, however the airline at large was an accident bound to happen for the way they were operating, and if they had not crashed in the way they did they would have still crashed another day, again, with almost certainty.

The movie was written, produced, directed and starred by Enrique Piñeyro, a former LAPA pilot who was forced to resign when he sent a letter to the management warning that if they kept operating like this, an accident was not only a possibility but unavoidable.

By the way, it is a great movie in general, very entertaining and with excellent REAL shots of airplanes, in the ground ad flying, form the outside and from the cockpit (while actually flying). A movie very worth watching for everybody and especially for aviation enthusiasts, even if it wasn't about a real case. Not to mention that it should be mandatory for airline operations management, and I actually used it in training of company culture in other industries.

You can rent in in YouTube for a couple bucks.
Trailer and rent:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6H-FmK8QbM

(You also have it for free but with low definition and no subtitles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1G-dY_m-n4)

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Re: PIA A320 in Karachi: loss of power after GA, crashed in residential area during final approach

Postby 3WE » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:22 pm

...Well, I was arguing with you when you said that the main problem by large was the gear and the rest were sort of minor contributing factors...
I could continue that the wheels were the critical cause, but blowing across the threshold Uber hot is pretty bad, as is a gross disregard for safety in general.

I don’t think improved descent procedures fixes the problem...a bit more attention to fundamentals AND EXISTING procedures is probably in order/mild sarcasm.
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