Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

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J
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby J » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:29 pm

News Reports Beginning to Sound Like EgyptAir Flight 990

Co-pilot crashed plane into Alps on purpose, investigators believe

The co-pilot of the Germanwings aircraft that crashed in the Alps killing 150 people deliberately started the plane’s final descent while the main pilot was out of the cockpit, investigators believe.

Marseille prosecutor Brice Robin said as soon as the pilot left the cockpit, the door is closed and the co-pilot, 28-year-old Andreas Lubitz from Germany, initiated the plane’s descent. Mr Robin said this could only have been done voluntarily.

“It appeared the co-pilot made the most of the pilot stepping out of the cockpit, "he said

Mr Robin said the co-pilot appeared to ingnore numerous messages from air controllers and also did not send any distress signals.

Mr Robin said the pilot could be heard repeatedly banging on the cockpit door, attempting to gain entry. He said the recordings indicate the co-pilot was breathing normally up until the point of impact.

He added that screams from the passengers could only be heard immediately before impact. “We only hear screams at the very end. It’s at the last moment of the flight and death was instant. It hit the mountain at 700 km/h,” he said.

He said the most plausible explanation of the crash is that the co-pilot, “through deliberate abstention, refused to open the cabin door ... to the chief pilot, and used the button” to cause the plane to lose altitude, Robin said. He emphasized that his conclusions were preliminary.

He told reporters that there was “no indication” of terrorism.
* * *
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/eu ... -1.2154165

AndyToop
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby AndyToop » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:48 pm

Well there goes the hypoxia theory.
Orangehuggy had it nailed last year :(

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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby 3WE » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:57 pm

I saw that the copilot had 600 hrs?

If so, that's interesting. There's those cases of a super star straight A student who get a B and can't deal with the "failure".

I don't think our beloved and very intelligent Flyboy got to his 320 at 600 hours.
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby AndyToop » Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:36 pm

I saw that the copilot had 600 hrs?

If so, that's interesting. There's those cases of a super star straight A student who get a B and can't deal with the "failure".

I don't think our beloved and very intelligent Flyboy got to his 320 at 600 hours.
630 - but its not clear if that is in the 320 since joining with Germanwings 18 months ago or total.
Don't know what the average number of hours is for a euorpean LCC, but 630 in 18 months is roughly 35 per month

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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby flyboy2548m » Thu Mar 26, 2015 2:07 pm

I saw that the copilot had 600 hrs?

If so, that's interesting. There's those cases of a super star straight A student who get a B and can't deal with the "failure".

I don't think our beloved and very intelligent Flyboy got to his 320 at 600 hours.
Indeed. In fact, I had almost twice that when I first got to the CRJ, let alone the Bus.
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby GlennAB1 » Thu Mar 26, 2015 9:44 pm

Very sad. I told ITS I was way more afraid of being killed by a pilot than he could possibly be afraid of maintenance.
you still have to find a crew willing to fly this "barely airworthy" heap
no such thing as "barely airworthy" it's either Airworthy or Not
100% incorrect Ever hear of Ferry Permit? issued for Non airworthy aircraft
LOL

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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby 3WE » Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:33 pm

I say this tongue-in-cheek, as automation has generally done a lot of nice things...however, back when there was all the grumbling about the elimination of the engineer position...

In some ways those folks are getting the last laugh.

I'm thinking how airlines could keep a 3-pilot crew busy: the PIC does crossword puzzles, the FO monitors the transponder reply light, and maybe the engineer can take care of cabin temperatures (those do seem to suffer more in the crew-of-two-automated-environmental-control-era.) Who's job is it to pet the dog?

As to further tweaking the door locking mechanism, it didn't matter that much the second pilot got back to the controls with EgyptAir 990.
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby Gabriel » Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:46 am

No worries, Evan and Gabriel will the answer by the end of the day.
Wrong. It took me one more day to get the answer.

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Robert Hilton
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby Robert Hilton » Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:54 am

It is a very quick conclusion to the investigation. Are we to expect more revelations at a later date?

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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby monchavo » Fri Mar 27, 2015 10:54 am

I say this tongue-in-cheek, as automation has generally done a lot of nice things...however, back when there was all the grumbling about the elimination of the engineer position...

In some ways those folks are getting the last laugh.

I'm thinking how airlines could keep a 3-pilot crew busy: the PIC does crossword puzzles, the FO monitors the transponder reply light, and maybe the engineer can take care of cabin temperatures (those do seem to suffer more in the crew-of-two-automated-environmental-control-era.) Who's job is it to pet the dog?

As to further tweaking the door locking mechanism, it didn't matter that much the second pilot got back to the controls with EgyptAir 990.
What the airlines are suggesting is a PR knee jerk and nothing more than lip service - a tiny procedural modification that has limited practical value. However they'll be clamouring to do nearly anything to stem the public's "horror" (it's like a bus driver detouring and wilfully driving off a cliff) in this case. Lurid, as I said.
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monchavo
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby monchavo » Fri Mar 27, 2015 11:08 am

We we please explore for a few moments the reasons why the prosecutor has appeared to rule out pilot incapacitation.

- CVR noises indicating thumping / hammering to get back in
- A descent had been initiated
- "regular breathing" or "normal breathing", indicating that the Co-pilot was conscious


My father suffers from epilepsy of a serious nature. If he has a fit then his breathing changes markedly - I wonder if there are conditions whereby he may have suffered some form of incapacitating issue that didn't change his breathing pattern. Perhaps not. So then you're left with the apparent evidence that it was a wilful act.

It seems an awfully strange way to kill yourself. It's neither the "blaze of glory" type approach that we might logically assume (EgyptAir) nor the private, quiet way of doing it, it's a sort of passive agressive masochistic thing "I'm going to wait for the moment of impact to maximise the suffering like a ticking time bomb" type approach. Odd.
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby J » Fri Mar 27, 2015 11:34 am

Here is a pretty good recap of events up to yesterday including orientation of some of the wreckage, airspeed profile, etc. There is no discussion of the investigation of items at the first officer's home or a report I heard this morning about the Captain possibly using an axe in an attempt to gain entry to the flight deck.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32035121

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Robert Hilton
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby Robert Hilton » Fri Mar 27, 2015 12:36 pm

Still looking for the FDR though. It would be nice if that was found soon to back up/discount their hypothesis.

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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby 3WE » Fri Mar 27, 2015 1:10 pm

I appreciate our much-more-reserved discussions here. Indeed, we do not have absolute proof of suicide and there are a few valid, yet-to-be-disproven ways it could not have been an intentional crash...

...we will have to wait for the final report, see what's on the co-pilots blogs and interent search histories, recent romances and flight checks, and learn the nuances of the chain of events, who said what, when and if the door clicked shut and the descent was dialed in without any other abnormal noises. Maybe JP yet again rejected his photo submission?

As much as I hate the media and PR spin BS, my thinking is that this looks like a duck and walks like a duck and smells like a duck...
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Gabriel
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby Gabriel » Fri Mar 27, 2015 2:10 pm

I appreciate our much-more-reserved discussions here. Indeed, we do not have absolute proof of suicide and there are a few valid, yet-to-be-disproven ways it could not have been an intentional crash...
Like...

The pilot selecting 100ft and starting the descent because of ......... (not decompression because the relevant alarms didn't sound) exactly when the captain had just left the cockpit, and then actively denying the entry of the captain back to the cockpit because ........., and then doing nothing to avoid the crash because ...........

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3WE
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby 3WE » Fri Mar 27, 2015 2:18 pm

I appreciate our much-more-reserved discussions here. Indeed, we do not have absolute proof of suicide and there are a few valid, yet-to-be-disproven ways it could not have been an intentional crash...
Like...

The pilot selecting 100ft and starting the descent because of ......... (not decompression because the relevant alarms didn't sound) exactly when the captain had just left the cockpit, and then actively denying the entry of the captain back to the cockpit because ........., and then doing nothing to avoid the crash because ...........
Not ok for you to not include the last paragraph (nor the middle part) in this snip...

Remember:

1) All of this is stuff conveyed by our oh-so-sensational press and big talking heads with well-prepared PR speeches. (NOT the all important final report).

2) WTF did I say in the so-called "bottom line" of my post which you omitted?

If you were simply continuing the discussion, I apologize. I perceived that you were dismissing exactly what Evan said over there "not 100%, but 99%."

I do not want to believe that someone deliberately crashed the plane...
Just like I do not want to believe that someone would do a full, relentless, intentional 6-minute pull up.

Just like I do not want to believe that someone sat 20 degress ANU at four one oh with decaying airspeed and stall warnings going off and watched a plane stall and flame out.

So, it's ok with me if there's a few posts at AD.info discussing it. As to the feeding frenzy at JP...same issue, but much less restraint.

Repeating: Looks like a duck, walks like a duck, smells like a duck...
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Gabriel
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby Gabriel » Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:39 pm

Not ok for you to not include the last paragraph (nor the middle part) in this snip...
Sorry, my bad.
I wonder who could I have learn those miss-reading skills from.
Repeating: Looks like a duck, walks like a duck, smells like a duck...
And quacks like a duck.

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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby 3WE » Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:54 pm

1) I wonder who could I have learn those miss-reading skills from.
Repeating: Looks like a duck, walks like a duck, smells like a duck...
2) And quacks like a duck.
1) Indeed. ;)

2) Concur.
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Robert Hilton
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby Robert Hilton » Sat Mar 28, 2015 8:26 am

Revelations in the news today over the pilot's mental state and relational problems may have lead him to this act. It's going to get very messy. As we all know, you cannot exclude risk altogether from any situation but this will hurt. You must ask yourself what are the consequences for air travel as a whole. I'm sure Lufthansa is feeling very down now.

It goes to show that one safety feature can open up a whole raft of new dangers.

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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby Gabriel » Sat Mar 28, 2015 4:47 pm

This accident is a copy-paste of this other one:
Minutes before the crash the co-pilot left the cockpit for the lavatory. The captain then manually changed the altitude preselector from 38,000 feet to an altitude of 592 feet. The auto throttle was manually reengaged and throttle level then automatically retarded and set to idle. The airspeed was manually selected several times until the end of the recording, which remained close to the Vmo (maximum operating limit speed). During the descent the captain used the speed brake handle to activate the spoilers. One the cockpit voice recorder sounds were heard of someone pounding on the cockpit door.
Guess which one is it? Why didn't that accident trigger the level of discussion (and possibly action) that the Germanwings is triggering? We lost an opportunity to prevent Germanwings.

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3WE
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby 3WE » Sat Mar 28, 2015 10:58 pm

Unfortunately the third world airlines sometimes get pilots that are less capable and potentily less psychologically stable.

Also unfortunately, we do dismiss third world incidents more than first world ones.

"This sort of thing just doesn't happen here." so it is more newsworthy.
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3WE
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby 3WE » Sun Mar 29, 2015 3:39 pm

...so, where are we today? We're there 10 million warning signs and dropped balls that this guy was a loose cannon?

Or is it more of an ouch- tough problem to solve?

As to the wonderful flurry to turn it ALL over to Otto...an old debate that usually concludes that it's good to have some humans up front...

I predict that a hostie will now ALWAYS enter the cockpit, but no return to a three man cockpit crew...
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby GlennAB1 » Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:19 pm

How about an Air Marshal? He can shoot a pilot if one attempts to crash a plane.
you still have to find a crew willing to fly this "barely airworthy" heap
no such thing as "barely airworthy" it's either Airworthy or Not
100% incorrect Ever hear of Ferry Permit? issued for Non airworthy aircraft
LOL

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3WE
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby 3WE » Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:18 pm

How about an Air Marshal? He can shoot a pilot if one attempts to crash a plane.
Who will assure us an error-proof air Marshall psychological stability program to keep suicidal air marshalls from shooting both pilots during lavatory breaks?
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Re: Germanwings A320 down in French Alps

Postby flyboy2548m » Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:57 am

All in favor of PERMANENTLY removing Idiot Quest and Captain Mustache from the world's airwaves, say "aye"!
"Lav sinks on 737 Max are too small"

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