Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

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Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby 3WE » Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:20 pm

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/18/europe...ash/index.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...n-airport.html

737, ~60 fatalities.

The parlour talk at the photography place says that there was a botched approach and some sort of go around including ground contact and some sort of damage. The plane circled a while and then crashed on the second landing attempt.

The Daily Mail link contains what is said to be a video of the crash (from a good distance through trees in the dark). It seems to show a steep descent.
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby 3WE » Sat Mar 19, 2016 2:49 pm

http://avherald.com/h?article=495997e2&opt=0
A Flydubai Boeing 737-800, registration A6-FDN performing flight FZ-981 from Dubai (United Arab Emirates) to Rostov on Don (Russia) with 55 passengers and 7 crew, had aborted the approach to Rostov's runway 22 at 01:41L (22:41Z) due to weather and entered a hold initially at 8000 feet, after 30 minutes at 8000 feet the aircraft climbed to FL150. After about 2 hours of holding the aircraft commenced another approach to Rostov's runway 22, winds from 240 degrees at 27 knots (14 m/s) gusting 42 knots (22 m/s), the crew announced a go around, the aircraft however struck a wing onto the runway at about 03:43L (00:43Z), broke up and burst into flames. There are no survivors.

The aircraft carried fuel for trip, contingency, alternate, final fuel reserve (30 minutes) and additional holding for about 2:30 hours, total fuel for an endurance of about 8.5 hours. The aircraft had been airborne until time of impact for 06:02 hours.

Russia's Ministry of Emergencies reported that more than 700 people and more than 100 vehicles have been deployed to the crash scene for search and recovery operations following the aircraft crash. The aircraft struck a wing onto the runway on touch down and began to disintegrate.

Russia's MAK (Interstate Aviation Committee, Accident Investigation Board) reported the aircraft broke up and burst into flames upon touching ground, debris is spread over a large area (several kilometers). An investigation has been opened.

The airline confirmed the aircraft crashed on landing in Rostov, there were fatalities.

Radar data suggest the aircraft on final approach was to the left of the localizer and just to the left of the left runway edge and corrected to the right while over the runway bringing the aircraft just within the runway edges during the flare.
If that video is what it looks like (a very steep descent and crash), perhaps it's falling out of the sky out of control after scraping the wing and going back back airborne.
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby Not_Karl » Sat Mar 19, 2016 3:40 pm

The Daily Mail link contains what is said to be a video of the crash (from a good distance through trees in the dark). It seems to show a steep descent.
Very reminiscent of Tatarstan at Kazan... :cry:
No reports of previous landing attempt damage on my local media.

However, on AvHerald:
After about 2 hours of holding the aircraft commenced another approach to Rostov's runway 22, winds from 240 degrees at 27 knots (14 m/s) gusting 42 knots (22 m/s), the crew announced a go around, the aircraft however struck a wing onto the runway at about 03:43L (00:43Z), broke up and burst into flames. There are no survivors.
Linky.
:?
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby 3WE » Sat Mar 19, 2016 5:33 pm

Very reminiscent of Tatarstan at Kazan where a mismanaged go around + underslung engines + flap retraction + that propensity to be really nose-high resulted in a "classic" stall-crash-burn with a somewhat similar steep final descent.
Fixed.

(Not all of us are a fully functional relational database of airlines, cities, flight numbers and crash summaries)

/pet peeve of the day ;)

...and yes, after consulting Wikipedia, I see the similarity you cite.
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby 3WE » Sat Mar 19, 2016 5:40 pm

Very reminiscent of Tatarstan at Kazan... :cry:
No soy un experto, pero pienso que los pilotos deberían ejercer el cuidado en el tiramiento volando alto de nariz en estados de energía baja.
I hope not_
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby Not_Karl » Sat Mar 19, 2016 6:12 pm

Very reminiscent of Tatarstan at Kazan... :cry:
No soy un experto, pero pienso que los pilotos deberían ejercer el cuidado en el tiramiento volando alto de nariz en estados de energía baja.
I hope not_
I was referring to what is seen in the video (angle of attack). We still don't know what and how happened (wing strike, go around, etc.) and should wait for the final report.

I see people there and on AvH also noting the similarity of the crash to Tatarstan's and wondering if the video is actually from that accident and not FlyDubai's.
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby 3WE » Sat Mar 19, 2016 6:35 pm

...
1. We still don't know what and how happened (wing strike, go around, etc.)
2. and should wait for the final report.
3. I see people there and on AvH also noting the similarity of the crash to Tatarstan's and wondering if the video is actually from that accident and not FlyDubai's.
1. Indeed.
2. No. Parlour talk is the reason for this forum...that being said, Indeed, too much, over-the-top, unsubstantiated stuff too soon afterwards (before Intermediate report, or even fact checking by the over-sensational media).

3a. The debris is consistent with a video of a steep descent (regardless if the video is legitimate or not).
3b. The debris is not consistent with what we usually see with a botched landing where you scrape wings...instead it's more consistent with the crash we code name as "Tatarsan" (which also involves a go-around).
3c. Point 3b throws proverbial gasoline on the parlour talk fire that this crash is unusual (not that ALL crashes aren't unusual too).
Good discussion.
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby 3WE » Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:39 pm

Does it really matter if it's fire or not?

1) It's a dang security camera! (or something like that)- Indeed it may or may not differentiate a landing light or fire or whatever!
2) Something really big went wrong towards the very end of the flight- so what if a little fire was involved or not...if they scraped a wing a few flames are not out of the question...

Definitely one of the things that should wait for an official report. :roll:
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby Not_Karl » Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:49 pm

I was referring to what is seen in the video (angle of attack).
Tatarstan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpzv9KVsdMU

FlyDubai:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-eP_7_yJqk

Maybe Tatarstan was even steeper (or the location of the camera and/or my crappy eyes and brain make it seem so).
2. No. Parlour talk is the reason for this forum...that being said, Indeed, too much, over-the-top, unsubstantiated stuff too soon afterwards (before Intermediate report, or even fact checking by the over-sensational media).
Concur.

3a. The debris is consistent with a video of a steep descent (regardless if the video is legitimate or not).
3b. The debris is not consistent with what we usually see with a botched landing where you scrape wings...instead it's more consistent with the crash we code name as "Tatarsan" (which also involves a go-around).
3c. Point 3b throws proverbial gasoline on the parlour talk fire that this crash is unusual (not that ALL crashes aren't unusual too).
Concur. In my original post I was commenting how the pictures show what appears to be a high energy impact and not simply a crash landing, while acknowledging my complete ignorance on the subject, asshattery in general and even encouraging Flyboy to insult me, but then changed my mind :mrgreen: .

(Your fixed post regarding Tatarstan's catastrophic go-around -and comments to Evanie there- has been read and acknowledged).

(Edit)
1) It's a dang security camera! (or something like that)- Indeed it may or may not differentiate a landing light or fire or whatever!
2) Something really big went wrong towards the very end of the flight- so what if a little fire was involved or not...if they scraped a wing a few flames are not out of the question...

Definitely one of the things that should wait for an official report. :roll:
1) Concur, but I, crappy security camera footage parlour talker extraordinaire, see no fire.
2) I'm waiting for Evanie to mention Air Canada flight 621(hard landing causing an engine to fall off and a fuel leak which ignited, followed by a go-around during which the affected wing exploded causing the DC8 to crash).
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby 3WE » Sun Mar 20, 2016 12:51 am

I was referring to what is seen in the video (angle of attack).

Tatarstan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpzv9KVsdMU

FlyDubai:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-eP_7_yJqk

Maybe Tatarstan was even steeper...
.

Indeed, the steepness is troubling and raises many questions.

Also, there is sad ironing that they landed extremely close to the fixed-distance-aiming-blocks/approximate touchdown zone...a somewhat accurate landing, just lacking in gentleness and a bit off the centerline.
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby 3WE » Mon Mar 21, 2016 1:05 pm

Wing scrapes: Makes sense to me (because a steep dive into the aiming markers is consistent with something being very wrong with the aircraft), and because although the media can be really weak, I'm not sure why someone would fabricate that little detail in an initial report.

Weather at the time of the crash: Hard to put into words, but indeed it's "genuine" IMC, but the video seems to "see the crash" fairly well, only scattered clouds at 300, 1000 ft broken, and 1/2 to 1 mile visibility...So, I speculate that they should have had some visual ground contact to keep the greasy side down.

Hoping for good and insightful data from the recorders.
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby Not_Karl » Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:20 pm

Wing scrapes:
No word of the usual things people see/hear before a plane crashes (airplane on fire, airplane unstable, engines failing, engines "revving up and down", etc.), but a wing scrape... I'm (as a complete ignorant) still skeptical, but find it interesting.
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby 3WE » Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:39 pm

Update (Daily?)

I found Boeing Bobby's link to a fatigue article to be interesting.
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby Not_Karl » Tue Mar 22, 2016 7:23 pm

Late Mar 20th 2016 the MAK added, that the flight data recorder has been successfully read out and contains the data in good quality until impact of the aircraft, works to analyse the data have already started. The cockpit voice recorder memory module has received mechanical damage requiring repairs, checks of whether the non-volatile memory is still readable are going to commence after the repairs.

In the evening of Mar 21st 2016 the MAK reported that the repairs were successful and the cockpit voice recorder has been read out and contains good quality recordings until impact. The recording is now being transcribed and analysed.
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby 3WE » Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:01 pm

Video's posted there:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a2MJQbc5Zg

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=5f7_1458594998

The Youtube one is most strange- It seems to fly straight ahead for a good while, very stable. It disappears into the clouds for a very long 30 seconds, only to emerge in a steep dive (with very little progress made over the ground during that time).

Of course, the perspective from the camera may make my interpretations of movement to be wrong.

Still, a very strange course of events- I do not want to believe hand flying spatial disorientation by an airline pilot in an airliner with ALL the bells, whistles and autopilots.

...then again, I just got this horrible image of some guys with their heads down at the keyboard, punching in the next fix to the FMS and failing to realize that Otto was off or something.
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby Not_Karl » Wed Mar 23, 2016 6:16 pm

Of course, the perspective from the camera may make my interpretations of movement to be wrong.
I'm thinking the same...
Still, a very strange course of events- I do not want to believe hand flying spatial disorientation by an airline pilot in an airliner with ALL the bells, whistles and autopilots.

...then again, I just got this horrible image of some guys with their heads down at the keyboard, punching in the next fix to the FMS and failing to realize that Otto was off or something.
We still don't know (and should wait for the final report) what happened here, maybe the crew made everything they could against a suddenly uncontrollable airplane; but if something like that -to my most certainly wrong understanding- happened with Tatarstan, then is it possible? Or are there differences between the systems of a 737-500 and a -836A that would avoid it? :?:
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby 3WE » Wed Mar 23, 2016 8:48 pm

...We still don't know (and should wait for the final report)...
Indeed.

Given your report that the FDR/CVR downloaded well, I think "we*" probably do know what happened, and it may actually be time to slow the parlour talk and wait for that information to be released.

*The "we" that we really aren't a part of.
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby monchavo » Sat Mar 26, 2016 10:35 am

Some observations

- I share the slight bemusement of what seems to happen on the three angles of CCTV that I have seen so far. Something appears to happen to result in the loss of control of the aircraft. It does not look like a "normal approach"

- The aircraft seems to fly in a "normal" manner then suddenly, catastrophically lose control (and approach the ground at an angle not associated with landing). To my lay person eyes this looks like a stall, or that the aircraft is suddenly unable to fly normally (external factor impacting the integrity of the airframe)

- I recall the video of the ground where the plane impacted the next morning. As with germanwings there appear to be no pieces larger than a shoebox

- I have read that the russian authorities have expressed that it will take some cosniderable time to extract data from FDR/CVR due to being damaged

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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby Not_Karl » Sat Mar 26, 2016 8:39 pm

- I have read that the russian authorities have expressed that it will take some cosniderable time to extract data from FDR/CVR due to being damaged
According to AvHerald they were successfully repaired and read.
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby Gabriel » Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:30 am

Video of the approach, go around, and crash:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a2MJQbc5Zg

ATC:
https://youtu.be/mGF-RN8NqYY

The bad weather, gusting winds, and other etceteras may explain what caused the pilots to decide to go around.
That doesn't explain why, after what appears to be a reasonably normal initial climb out, the pilots loose control of the plane and they crash at an enormous sink rate. A stall or windshear might have been an initial destabilizing factor, but only a severely botched recovery from those situations can explain the crash as seen in the video.

Something much beyond weather happened here. Maybe a technical problem, maybe pilots' loss of situational awareness or severe spatial disorientation, maybe a "pull up"technique to recover from a stall...

And I don't see that we have any provable cause or even reasonable suspicion for getthereitis or land-now-itis, at lest yet.

According to AvHerlad, they had taken lots of extra fuel for holds (probably because they knew about the weather) and where still well short of their diversion fuel limit. So it seems that they had a plan since before take-off and they were following it. Also, they were already well within visual contact of the runway (and had been for some time) when they went around still with some altitude, so it is not like they were pushing the minimums and in last-second attempt to go around they crashed with trees that were hidden behind a dense fog.

It seems all well planned and executed all the way to the go-around. Then, something very bad happened. We will not know what it was until we have info of the contents of the FDR and CVR.

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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby Not_Karl » Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:36 am

(...)
Great to see you around here! :D :clap:
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby Gabriel » Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:49 am

(...)
Great to see you around here! :D :clap:
Ya estamos todos. ¿Quién se pone con el asado?

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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby Not_Karl » Mon Mar 28, 2016 7:09 am

Ya estamos todos. ¿Quién se pone con el asado?
3WE, por supuesto :mrgreen: .
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby 3WE » Mon Mar 28, 2016 1:12 pm

A summary of what little factual information we know, with a bit of speculation.
According to AvHerald they [recorders] were successfully repaired and read.
...We still don't know (and should wait for the final report)...
Indeed.

Given your report that the FDR/CVR downloaded well, I think "we*" probably do know what happened, and it may actually be time to slow the parlour talk and wait for that information to be released.

*The "we" that we really aren't a part of.
I guess we will have to wait for the final report and should not expect release of some pertinent facts from the recorders in a preliminary (official or otherwise) report?
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Re: Flydubai Flight 981, 737, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Postby Gabriel » Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:44 pm

I guess we will have to wait for the final report and should not expect release of some pertinent facts from the recorders in a preliminary (official or otherwise) report?
Well, here we have an "otherwise" initial report of the contents of the recorders.

http://www.rbc.ru/society/28/03/2016/56 ... ?from=main (link fixed)

Anybody here that understands (I think it's) Russian?
Flyboy?

In another form they say it says this:
Sources close to the investigation allegedly say the following:

- Upon deciding on going around, PF turned AP off and executed the procedure manually
- PF did not account for the different GA behavior of the aircraft with AP off and the aircraft began climbing "like a jetfighter"
- The aircraft reached a "critical climb angle" and its speed started to decay
- A disagreement emerged between PF and PNF
- PF continued to pull on the control column, while the PNF started to push it forward and shout something on the lines of "Stop. What are you doing?"
- The two pilots did not seem able to understand each other, and as the plane began plunging towards the ground, there were mostly desperate screams of terror
- It is difficult to determine who was flying the plane at that moment.
It bothers me that I am not surprised and somehow expected to see something like this.
Last edited by Gabriel on Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.


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