Ethiopian 737

[3WE]

Departed and made it to ~9000 feet. New aircraft according to the photographers- along with them mentioning the other new 737.

Throw in the 767and maybe we have a strange trend of seeming dives.

https://avherald.com/h?article=4c534c4a&opt=0

[J]

The Boeing 737 MAX 8 is the same type of plane as the Indonesian Lion Air jet that crashed soon after takeoff from Jakarta in 2018 -- killing 189 people.

But Geoffrey Thomas, the editor in chief of Airline Ratings, told CNN the Ethiopian Airlines crash on Sunday had "significant differences" to the Lion Air crash last year. On the Lion Air flight, there were "wild fluctuations in air speed and... we continued to get data from the plane all the way down to impact."

Sunday's crash, however, had "no fluctuations and all of the sudden transmission" ceased, he said. "That transmission ceasing indicates catastrophic failure in air."

"I think [Ethiopian Airlines] are going to be looking at whether there was an engine failure," CNN's Quest said. "The plane is climbing out at a normal fashion, but there are mountains in the area, and longstanding pilots are well aware that if you have an issue departing Addis on that particular route, you've got a mountain in front of you."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/10/africa/e ... ndex.html

[flyboy2548m]

It's curtains for Boeing, everybody, Evanie said so.

[monchavo]

Distasteful CEO pic "inspecting" the wreckage inside the crater. Awful idea.

https://i.redd.it/hoaazi0toal21.jpg

[KPryor]

Distasteful CEO pic "inspecting" the wreckage inside the crater. Awful idea.

https://i.redd.it/hoaazi0toal21.jpg

Guess he really needed a good photo op.

[monchavo]

Distasteful CEO pic "inspecting" the wreckage inside the crater. Awful idea.

https://i.redd.it/hoaazi0toal21.jpg

Guess he really needed a good photo op.

There must be a PR bible that says the CEO of an airline must go to the scene of the crash immediately, which i get on a certain level but there's visiting the site, and interfering with the debris......

[Chris Foss]

https://photos.google.com/photo/AF1QipM ... qXzT3ZZzG-



This photo shows a section of fuselage forward of the wing and some distance from the impact crater. It shows o signs of fire or dirt suggesting it was not ejected from the crater.

It also shows perforations of various sizes from objects entering the pressure hull. around some perforations are signs of airflow related marks.

This suggests an event while airborne, possibly fragments of an engine event, but unlikely IMO as the kevlar blanket would catch most of the small pieces.

I strongly believe this accident was unrelated to the aircraft or crew actions and the flight profile and sudden loss of ACARs data transmission is inconsistent with events of Lin Air.

I think we are looking at fragments traveling at high speed that came from outside the aircraft while in flight.

[Chris Foss]

I have now identified this piece of fuselage: It is port side just above the window line containing part of the 'i' and 'a' of the logo.

It is located in line with the engine fan. However, the entry trajectory of all holes is not entirely consistent with engine parts ejected in flight

[Gabriel]

Why do not say "missile" if that's what you think it was?

[Chris Foss]

I am only stating what I see.
It is a compelling conclusion, but only assumption.
I only put this forward to counter some of the rabid criticism of the aircraft and crew that is spreading across the worlds social media and press.

My statements were more intended to help folks keep an open mind until some facts are released by qualified investigators.

It struck me when I saw that piece because of the striking similarity to debris found on MH17 and the Iranian A300.

As a correction, a friend has done a better analysis and we believe this is the 'i o' not 'i a' of the logo in the picture above, making engine debris an unlikely cause of the perforations.

[3WE]

It's curtains for Boeing, everybody, Evanie said so.

Evanie's black and white thought process irritates me. Conversely, there is a healthy amount of media attention that this is the second crash of the great new aeroplanie...neither quite capture the truth of the situation, other than the PR department is probably putting ins some overtime crafting statements that sound smart, yet say little.

Is it possible that the undersized sink and related load calculations caused the wrong angle of attack to be entered into the engine control system?

I also note Christopher's missile theory...interesting.

[Chris Foss]

To clarify: Chris Foss = Tony Manzur.

Long time since I chatted to you all and as usual the worst of circumstances.

[KPryor]

As an aside, just wondering who Evanie is.

[Gabriel]

I am only stating what I see.
It is a compelling conclusion, but only assumption.
I only put this forward to counter some of the rabid criticism of the aircraft and crew that is spreading across the worlds social media and press.

My statements were more intended to help folks keep an open mind until some facts are released by qualified investigators.

It struck me when I saw that piece because of the striking similarity to debris found on MH17 and the Iranian A300.

As a correction, a friend has done a better analysis and we believe this is the 'i o' not 'i a' of the logo in the picture above, making engine debris an unlikely cause of the perforations.

Chris, (Tony), I found your observations very interesting. I could not open your picture or link but I found some picture over the internet that is possibly the same or similar to the one you mentioned.

My question was a honest one... I was just wondering why you would not say loud and clear what your thought was instead of having us read between lines. High-energy small fragments puncturing the fuselage from outside - in and it is unlikely to come from the engine... I can't imagine what else could be other than a missile, so why just don't say it? There is nothing wrong with that and, as I said, I found it an interesting and a valid hypothesis.

[Gabriel]

As an aside, just wondering who Evanie is.

We all wonder that. He is a screen name there that has certain traits that upset 3WE, but other than that....

[KPryor]

As an aside, just wondering who Evanie is.

We all wonder that. He is a screen name there that has certain traits that upset 3WE, but other than that....

Thanks! I've been away far too much, as I don't really know where "there: is, but it doesn't matter.

[Chris Foss]

It's a principle thing. Having worked in the industry and still have many friends still working around the globe, I do not want finite statements of speculation attributed to myself.
I limit my statement only to what I see before me and within the scope of my knowledge, training and experience.
With all the wild speculation about MCAS and pilot experience, we do not need more fanatics running around scaremongering.

nor do I want to close minds to all possibilities.

I have had the unpleasant experience of looking closely at damage from accidents and I do not recall ever seeing this type of perforation, all from one side from only ground impact or in a position that is not in line with the fan, main discs/compressor blades, so again, just trying to isolate 1 piece of the puzzle without inspiring others to jump ahead.

[Chris Foss]

Also to clarify my position:

I am dedicated to understand the truth and follow evidence to wherever it leads, ,so I have no axe to grind over any airline, manufacturer, country, politics or race.
I do not allow what has happened before to cloud my perspective until and unless there is consistent evidence to support it.

The second I make a pre-judgment on anything, including a missile, I lose the ability to see new evidence with impartiality which will only lead to an incomplete understanding.

For most people and especially the families and friends of the victims, it often means an obsessive search to understand why this happened. The brain grasps desperately for the clarity that gives them acceptance and closure. The very worst situation is where their emotions take a roller coaster ride from one extreme to another and this is what ignorant speculation does.

So stating opinion clearly and calmly without going beyond what the evidence shows is a very important principle to me.

One survivor that I have interviewed lives in BA, Arg. And was involved in an accident there some years ago.
I am forever in her dept for calmly explaining the emotions that survivors and family go through as they read comments that have no consideration to the loss of life or the suffering such comments produce.

Wild speculation may be annoying to some, but it twists the knife for those involved.
My thoughts and greatest respect is for the victims and families over anything else.

[Gabriel]

I don't really know where "there: is, but it doesn't matter.

Jetphotos forum.

[KPryor]

I don't really know where "there: is, but it doesn't matter.

Jetphotos forum.

Ah, thank you!

[3WE]

As an aside, just wondering who Evanie is.

We all wonder that. He is a screen name there that has certain traits that upset 3WE, but other than that....

WOW....Tony...what a blast from the past! Hope you participate more.

Evan is actually a member here too- and yeah, black and white thinking, continual admonishment of pilot performance, limited acknowledgement that maybe fundamental knowledge is OK to draw upon...yeah...irritating.

The here vs there discussions vary...here is generally a higher quality, but much lower quantity. The ole air-disaster.com "inside circle" has diverged and faded a bit- some of us here, try (unwisely) to keep the glory days alive...Jetphotos has a somewhat different makeup.

Tomfoolery levels are high here, but IMO, there are often very solid points made.

Refresh our memory (maybe in the OT forum), you are the typical "outsider aviation enthusiast" correct, or do you have some "insider credentials". ***EDIT*** Perhaps you did that above.

Yes, we try to walk a fine line between totally ignorant wild speculation, but make no mistake, there is (hopefully rational) speculation that goes on.

[Chris Foss]

Hey 3WE,
Yes its me! From the old days of ITS, Amy, Ancient Mariner and David H.

A quick CV to refresh the noodle in order to reference my comments:

Studied Aero Eng at Kingston Uni
300hrs PPL on 9 types
10 years flight dispatch at LHR
Senior dispatcher/instructor for SQ, IB, BI, 9V, OS, BD, QR, and a few others
15 years in transport management and accident investigation.
Currently designing and building high performance and advanced concept RC model aircraft while looking after my aging parents. My design/construction company is trickling along in the background.
Greatest AD.com achievement: helping to out and get rid of Jim Knight, aka creepy loser from Quebec living in his dads attic... not the millionaire CIA agent he claimed to be!!

I've been lurking, but happily there have been few significant accidents worth participating in until now.

I still keep in touch with Charles who is doing incredibly well with the airfield and FedEx

Hope you're well and still flying?

[monchavo]

Chris, welcome back.

Can you share a different link to the photo above? That one is broken. Thanks.

monchavo

[KPryor]

Not to go further off topic (but what the heck?), but I haven't checked out the jp forums and probably won't. I look in on pprune occasionally but there are a lot of jackasses there it seems. I miss the old AD days. Lots of great info and content that was fun to read. I learned a lot from AD. com.

[Chris Foss]

Hey KPryor, so lets bring it back.

I too am struggling with the repugnant behaviour on other forums regarding open discussions of this accident, which in my view is a significant one in terms of control authority of pilot/machine.

While I know how to build and fly a 737, I can't seem to work out the picture function, so bear with me on that.

On another forum, I did an estimated load calculation based on dispatch principles, typical route loads/distance and pax profile. I will copy it here for reference as some arguments are tending towards CG, trim and loads in relation to MCAS ops and the potential effects of MCAS failure on Lion Air (not that I believe that MCAS was a primary cause in ET's accident)