so America...

Discussion of aviation issues which are not safety related (airline operations, pilot contracts, aviation industry news, etc.)

Moderators: el, FrankM, Dmmoore

User avatar
Sickbag
Posts: 2840
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2008 2:10 pm
Location: Spine-fuhrer of Hoboken

so America...

Postby Sickbag » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:52 pm

Image[/URL]



...How's that Trumpy Wumpy thing working out for ya?
TRUMP: in-presidency structural break-up
within 18 months...

User avatar
3WE
Posts: 4161
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2008 2:37 pm
Location: Flyover, America

Re: so America...

Postby 3WE » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:31 pm

I may have been totally wrong about Evan.* Perhaps him and Donald have already discussed the next Air Force One.

Trump may see real value in it being a 7-something else-7, with two efficient engines, lots more modern automation and most importantly no Krueger flaps.

787 with quality composites and those cool Android Galaxy batteries???...probably too dangerous.

I guess that would leave a Triple 7.

*As flyboy will point out, I am totally wrong about things sometimes.
Commercial Pilot, Vandelay Industries, Inc., Plant Nutrient Division.

User avatar
flyboy2548m
Posts: 3766
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 12:32 am
Location: Ormond Beach, FL

Re: so America...

Postby flyboy2548m » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:03 am

It's an interesting issue. The two current VC-25As are the last -200 series airframes built. The Air Force has maintained that parts and support are starting to become an issue. To be honest, I find that a bit hard to believe, not only because those airplanes have very low hours, but also because it strikes me as somewhat unlikely that Boeing didn't furnish them with plenty of parts to last for decades to come, especially considering there are still surplus parts available for Cessna 310s built for the Air Force in the mid-1950s. $4bil for two replacement airplanes does seem a tad extreme, especially if the current ones can soldier on for quite a while longer...

What I haven't heard much about is the issue of the 4 operational E-4B Kneecaps. They are mid-70s airframes (although also relatively low-time). Now, there it does seem to me that a replacement can be something smaller since a lot of the equipment the Kneecaps carry has since become much smaller also.
Chief Pilot/ACJ Program Manager, Vandelay Industries, Inc

User avatar
Sickbag
Posts: 2840
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2008 2:10 pm
Location: Spine-fuhrer of Hoboken

Re: so America...

Postby Sickbag » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:32 am

flyboy2548m wrote:It's an interesting issue. The two current VC-25As are the last -200 series airframes built. The Air Force has maintained that parts and support are starting to become an issue. To be honest, I find that a bit hard to believe, not only because those airplanes have very low hours, but also because it strikes me as somewhat unlikely that Boeing didn't furnish them with plenty of parts to last for decades to come, especially considering there are still surplus parts available for Cessna 310s built for the Air Force in the mid-1950s. $4bil for two replacement airplanes does seem a tad extreme, especially if the current ones can soldier on for quite a while longer...

What I haven't heard much about is the issue of the 4 operational E-4B Kneecaps. They are mid-70s airframes (although also relatively low-time). Now, there it does seem to me that a replacement can be something smaller since a lot of the equipment the Kneecaps carry has since become much smaller also.



Im sure all these issues were carefully considered and indeed were the main issue before that tweet was crafted, honed and strategically released to the world, and it wasn't some reactive,immature response by a sociopath to some imagined slight from Muilenburg who spoke earlier about the need for tariff free trade to the world. Strong. High energy.
TRUMP: in-presidency structural break-up
within 18 months...

User avatar
3WE
Posts: 4161
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2008 2:37 pm
Location: Flyover, America

Re: so America...

Postby 3WE » Wed Dec 07, 2016 3:31 pm

Sickbag's new signiature wrote:TRUMP: in-presidency structural break-up within 18 months...


There is much discussion on our beloved fora regarding the pros and cons of Cowboy, Fundamental, Improvisational and Knowledge aspects versus Procedures, Practices, Training, and Black and White thinking. (Along with humour and sarcasm)...

The situation has relevance.
Commercial Pilot, Vandelay Industries, Inc., Plant Nutrient Division.

User avatar
flyboy2548m
Posts: 3766
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 12:32 am
Location: Ormond Beach, FL

Re: so America...

Postby flyboy2548m » Wed Dec 07, 2016 11:23 pm

Sickbag wrote:Im sure all these issues were carefully considered and indeed were the main issue before that tweet was crafted, honed and strategically released to the world, and it wasn't some reactive,immature response by a sociopath to some imagined slight from Muilenburg who spoke earlier about the need for tariff free trade to the world. Strong. High energy.


Sociopath or not, the person in question is quite good at counting money and telling a good deal from a bad one. $4B for a pair of airplanes that are already certified, $2B of which is supposed to be for R&D (of what I wonder) is certainly not a good deal.

My freed advice would be to not be so quick to succumb to butthurt every time His Donaldship says something, you're in for a long eight years otherwise.
Chief Pilot/ACJ Program Manager, Vandelay Industries, Inc

elaw
Posts: 291
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:01 pm
Location: Massachusetts, USA

Re: so America...

Postby elaw » Wed Dec 07, 2016 11:56 pm

Okay, two comments, one political, the other less so:

1) You're calling a guy who's declared bankruptcy 4 times and lost almost a billion dollars of his investors money good at telling a good deal from bad? He's okay at identifying deals that are good for himself personally... his track record at identifying deals that are good for others is dismal. Also note that one analyst did the math and figured out that if he'd just taken his inheritance and put it in an index fund, he'd have the same amount of money as he does now. So as far as being a business god that puts him about on a par with me and that's not saying much.

2) Saying the AF1 aircraft are the same as any other 747-800 is about the same as saying the 747-800 is the same as a 707. Yeah they've got a fuselage and wings and a tail and 4 engines but the Air Force planes also have tons of added specialized hardware that's very expensive to design and implement when you have to amortize your R&D costs over a quantity of 2 aircraft. It's not like they're buying a bone-stock 748 and bolting a stereo into it! :lol:

Let's put it this way: if you think $4 billion is excessive for those aircraft, please tell us what a reasonable price would be for them, and where two such aircraft can be bought for that price.
HR consultant, Yoyodyne Propulsion Systems, Inc.

User avatar
flyboy2548m
Posts: 3766
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 12:32 am
Location: Ormond Beach, FL

Re: so America...

Postby flyboy2548m » Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:36 am

elaw wrote:2) Saying the AF1 aircraft are the same as any other 747-800 is about the same as saying the 747-800 is the same as a 707.


I stopped reading after that. If that's truly your position, I can't help you.
Chief Pilot/ACJ Program Manager, Vandelay Industries, Inc

elaw
Posts: 291
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:01 pm
Location: Massachusetts, USA

Re: so America...

Postby elaw » Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:43 am

If you think the AF1 aircraft are the same as any other 748, you're not likely to be of much help anyway.
HR consultant, Yoyodyne Propulsion Systems, Inc.

User avatar
flyboy2548m
Posts: 3766
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 12:32 am
Location: Ormond Beach, FL

Re: so America...

Postby flyboy2548m » Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:09 am

elaw wrote:If you think the AF1 aircraft are the same as any other 748...


Where did I say that? You show me where I said that, and I won't EVER argue with you again, Scout's Honor!

As for your other horseshit question, consider this:

A 747-8i has a list price of around $300Mil. Thus, even at list prices that's $600Mil for the pair. Let's assume for the moment that NONE of the equipment from the current VC-25As will transfer to the prospective VC-25Bs, and that it's going to be a clean-sheet upfit. Here's where your argument falls apart: there, in fact, already are a few such aircraft produced in VVIP configuration. Among them were two made for both the current and former Emirs of Qatar. I know for a fact (we have a member here who can probably confirm that) those birds went out the door fully outfitted for less than $500Mil a copy, and this is for airplanes with golden crappers and such. So, that's still only $1B for the pair. I'll give the Air Force the benefit of the doubt and give them another $500Mil to play with, because America. That's still only 1.5B, not 4B.
Chief Pilot/ACJ Program Manager, Vandelay Industries, Inc

User avatar
3WE
Posts: 4161
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2008 2:37 pm
Location: Flyover, America

Re: so America...

Postby 3WE » Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:21 am

flyboy2548m wrote:1. ...butthurt...

2....eight years...


1. Yeah sure, 'Donald sucks', but Hillary failed to beat him... when it 'should have been so easy'

2A. WOW, fascinating... seems hard to believe... just like 35,000 Ft. A-300 relentless pull ups.

2B. El Presidente Electo, may have some eye-rolling attributes, but he's not all that stupid.

2C. All the deplorable, homophobic, racist, misogynistic, gun-loving white males, also tend to have a secondary interest in possible improvements in government spending, so maybe passing on two crazy expensive planes might be ok.
Commercial Pilot, Vandelay Industries, Inc., Plant Nutrient Division.

elaw
Posts: 291
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:01 pm
Location: Massachusetts, USA

Re: so America...

Postby elaw » Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:34 am

Actually per Boeing's website the 748 is $378.5 million which is much closer to 400 than 300.

And golden toilets are nice, but do you really think the cost of those is comparable to retrofitting an aerial-refueling system? Among other things, I'd hope the latter would be designed to higher engineering standards - if your golden crapper backs up midflight it's an annoyance, if your aerial refueling system backs up, the effects could be somewhat worse.

Those Qatari planes... were they EMP hardened? Did they have a secure communications system that works worldwide? By that I mean *really* secure, not some consumer-grade setup that might or might not keep college kids from getting T's credit card number.

Regardless of the above, the reality is neither you nor I know exactly what those planes should cost, because much of the expensive stuff that's added to them is classified. And I'd be willing to bet at this point, Trump doesn't know either. Yet he's basically claiming he does know what those planes should cost, which is essentially lying, which is what offends me. It doesn't surprise me, but it offends me.
HR consultant, Yoyodyne Propulsion Systems, Inc.

User avatar
flyboy2548m
Posts: 3766
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 12:32 am
Location: Ormond Beach, FL

Re: so America...

Postby flyboy2548m » Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:35 am

elaw wrote:Regardless of the above, the reality is neither you nor I know exactly what those planes should cost, because much of the expensive stuff that's added to them is classified. And I'd be willing to bet at this point, Trump doesn't know either. Yet he's basically claiming he does know what those planes should cost, which is essentially lying, which is what offends me. It doesn't surprise me, but it offends me.


Your being offended is hereby noted.
Chief Pilot/ACJ Program Manager, Vandelay Industries, Inc

elaw
Posts: 291
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:01 pm
Location: Massachusetts, USA

Re: so America...

Postby elaw » Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:38 am

3WE wrote:1. Yeah sure, 'Donald sucks', but Hillary failed to beat him... when it 'should have been so easy'

Keep in mind, Hillary *did* beat him according to the popular vote, just like Gore beat shrub.

3WE wrote:2C. All the deplorable, homophobic, racist, misogynistic, gun-loving white males, also tend to have a secondary interest in possible improvements in government spending, so maybe passing on two crazy expensive planes might be ok.

Well just for the record, at least until the next president comes along, I'd be fine with saving a bunch of money by having T travel in a regular 748 vs. these new aircraft he apparently hates so much. 8-)

Oh and...
3WE wrote:2B. El Presidente Electo, may have some eye-rolling attributes, but he's not all that stupid.

Yep, Trump is a lot of things but stupid is not one of them. Among other things, he's a master at manipulating people... a trait he shares with many other reality TV stars.
Last edited by elaw on Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:42 am, edited 2 times in total.
HR consultant, Yoyodyne Propulsion Systems, Inc.

elaw
Posts: 291
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:01 pm
Location: Massachusetts, USA

Re: so America...

Postby elaw » Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:39 am

flyboy2548m wrote:
elaw wrote:Regardless of the above, the reality is neither you nor I know exactly what those planes should cost, because much of the expensive stuff that's added to them is classified. And I'd be willing to bet at this point, Trump doesn't know either. Yet he's basically claiming he does know what those planes should cost, which is essentially lying, which is what offends me. It doesn't surprise me, but it offends me.


Your being offended is hereby noted.

Yeah, too bad the media isn't all over it like when Trump gets offended... by pretty much everything.
HR consultant, Yoyodyne Propulsion Systems, Inc.

User avatar
3WE
Posts: 4161
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2008 2:37 pm
Location: Flyover, America

Re: so America...

Postby 3WE » Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:37 pm

elaw wrote:
3WE wrote:1. Yeah sure, 'Donald sucks', but Hillary failed to beat him... when it 'should have been so easy'


Keep in mind, Hillary *did* beat him according to the popular vote, just like Gore beat shrub.



Ok, I will keep that in mind.

But in the spirit of transparency, it will not change the election outcome, and the fact that Donald should have been so easy to beat.
Commercial Pilot, Vandelay Industries, Inc., Plant Nutrient Division.

User avatar
flyboy2548m
Posts: 3766
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 12:32 am
Location: Ormond Beach, FL

Re: so America...

Postby flyboy2548m » Thu Dec 08, 2016 7:12 pm

elaw wrote:Well just for the record, at least until the next president comes along, I'd be fine with saving a bunch of money by having T travel in a regular 748 vs. these new aircraft he apparently hates so much. 8-)



I'd be even more fine with him riding on current two VC-25As, neither of which should have much more than 9,000hrs TT by my calculations.
Chief Pilot/ACJ Program Manager, Vandelay Industries, Inc

elaw
Posts: 291
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:01 pm
Location: Massachusetts, USA

Re: so America...

Postby elaw » Thu Dec 08, 2016 7:33 pm

In one sense I agree... but I think there's one factor that we're not considering.

At first glance, it seems crazy that "parts availability" would be a sensible reason for retiring those aircraft. JT9D engines are all over the place, if a new landing gear tire is needed I'm sure they can be had just about anywhere, etc. etc.

But those are the *standard* 742 parts. What about parts for all the one-off airframe mods and specialized equipment? Any custom-manufactured parts for the planes were built circa 1987 and when the spares run out, they're out... there are no replacement parts to be had anywhere. Same with electronic parts... I'm pretty familiar with electrical engineering and I'd say 20% at most of the semiconductor devices that were being made in 1987 are made today. So again... when the supply runs out, you're hosed. Unless it's a hose you require, then I guess you're unhosed. :lol:

The above also is a factor in the cost of the replacement aircraft. When XXX airline buys a spiffy new 747, it generally doesn't come with any spare parts. If a landing gear tire fails, they just go out and buy a new one. With custom-built stuff for the military that's not how it works... because custom parts are built just for the project and off-the-shelf parts may not be available later, a contract for military equipment, especially "high tech" stuff, usually includes a *lot* of spare parts. And those of course don't come for free.
HR consultant, Yoyodyne Propulsion Systems, Inc.

User avatar
flyboy2548m
Posts: 3766
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 12:32 am
Location: Ormond Beach, FL

Re: so America...

Postby flyboy2548m » Thu Dec 08, 2016 7:58 pm

elaw wrote:When XXX airline buys a spiffy new 747, it generally doesn't come with any spare parts.


Yes, it does, elaw. As well as a certain amount of hours of crew training, of mx training, of cabin crew training, a certain amount of support material etc etc. This is why you hear terms like "the total contract was valued at xxx amount of dollars". Nobody just buys a "spiffy new airplane", it's a whole package of stuff.

But thank you for playing.
Chief Pilot/ACJ Program Manager, Vandelay Industries, Inc

elaw
Posts: 291
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:01 pm
Location: Massachusetts, USA

Re: so America...

Postby elaw » Thu Dec 08, 2016 8:31 pm

Fair enough, I stand corrected. But I find it very hard to believe it's an apples-to-apples comparison.

When an airline purchases a plane, do they buy all the spares they anticipate needing for the service life of the aircraft? They're nuts if they do... why tie up $x million in spare parts that you probably won't need until years in the future? You need to have enough spares on hand to put the a/c back into service if an unexpected failure occurs but otherwise it makes more financial sense to buy parts when you need them.

The AF1 situation is different in two ways. First, the military often keep aircraft in service longer (B-52, anyone?) than the airlines do. So even parts that for an airline would be expected to be available off-the-shelf for the time they anticipate using the aircraft, might become unavailable while the military is still flying the plane. So they need spares to fill long-term needs.

And as I said before, on a plane like AF1, there are a lot of parts that were never available off-the-shelf and never will be. If you ever expect to need spares for those things, it makes financial sense to buy them at the time of purchasing the aircraft. If you don't it's always possible you might be able to substitute a different part or get more made, but those options are almost always much more expensive and time-consuming than purchasing at build time.
HR consultant, Yoyodyne Propulsion Systems, Inc.

User avatar
Not_Karl
Posts: 2023
Joined: Thu Nov 12, 2009 6:12 pm
Location: Buenos Aires

Re: so America...

Postby Not_Karl » Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:15 am

We -Argentinians, not we aviation insiders- may be selling a V.I.P. 757 soon, please notify El Señor Trumpo, in case he is interested. Thanks in advance.
elaw wrote:Same with electronic parts...

Just replace the electrolytic capacitors and they should be as good as new! :mrgreen:
Junior Janitor, Vandelay Industries, Inc., Environmental Poisoning Assurance department.

"I think, based on the types of aircraft listed, you're pretty much guaranteed a fiery death."
- Contemporary Poet flyboy2548m to a Foffie.

User avatar
Gabriel
Posts: 1648
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2008 2:55 am
Location: Buenos Aires, Argentina

Re: so America...

Postby Gabriel » Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:45 am

flyboy2548m wrote:Among them were two made for both the current and former Emirs of Qatar. I know for a fact (we have a member here who can probably confirm that) those birds went out the door fully outfitted for less than $500Mil a copy, and this is for airplanes with golden crappers and such.

Unlike most other Presidential planes, the AF1* is much much more than a luxury VIP version.
Of course that I don't know for fact about most of them, but it is said that that AF1* is fitted with things like:
- In-flight refueling capability (this one I know for fact).
- Chaff and flares dispenser.
- ECM.
- Missile detectors (different technologies, like radar, IR, etc...)
- A (or a few) military-type radar(s).
- An escape capsule (like in the AF1 movie)
- Improved airplane systems (more redundant, more resistant to damage, more shielded for example against PEMs...)
- Super-specialized communication systems (including what is needed to start a nuclear war from the air).
- Super-specialized data transfer and analysis systems (basically a flying situation room).
- A barber chair (ok, that one is not so uncommon in other presidential planes).

Do the Qatar Emir's ones have this kind of stuff?

(* I know that AF1 is the call sign of any plane with the POTUS in it, but you know what I mean)

Another point is that these airplanes are not being planned to replace the current ones soon, but in 10 years, so one cannot take into account the current condition of the current planes and spares, but what will the situation be in 10 years. And yes, I know you said "for the decades to come".

I do believe that a plane based on the 777 would be better, cheaper to buy and cheaper to operate.

User avatar
Gabriel
Posts: 1648
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2008 2:55 am
Location: Buenos Aires, Argentina

Re: so America...

Postby Gabriel » Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:45 am

Gabriel wrote:
flyboy2548m wrote:Among them were two made for both the current and former Emirs of Qatar. I know for a fact (we have a member here who can probably confirm that) those birds went out the door fully outfitted for less than $500Mil a copy, and this is for airplanes with golden crappers and such.

Unlike most other Presidential planes, the AF1* is much much more than a luxury VIP version.
Of course that I don't know for fact about most of them, but it is said that that AF1* is fitted with things like:
- In-flight refueling capability (this one I know for fact).
- Chaff and flares dispenser.
- ECM.
- Missile detectors (different technologies, like radar, IR, etc...)
- A (or a few) military-type radar(s).
- An escape capsule (like in the AF1 movie)
- Improved airplane systems (more redundant, more resistant to damage, more shielded for example against PEMs...)
- Super-specialized communication systems (including what is needed to start a nuclear war from the air).
- Super-specialized data transfer and analysis systems (basically a flying situation room).
- A barber chair (ok, that one is not so uncommon in other presidential planes).

Do the Qatar Emir's ones have this kind of stuff? (honest question)

(* I know that AF1 is the call sign of any plane with the POTUS in it, but you know what I mean)

Another point is that these airplanes are not being planned to replace the current ones soon, but in 10 years, so one cannot take into account the current condition of the current planes and spares, but what will the situation be in 10 years. And yes, I know you said "for the decades to come".

I do believe that a plane based on the 777 would be better, cheaper to buy and cheaper to operate.

elaw
Posts: 291
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:01 pm
Location: Massachusetts, USA

Re: so America...

Postby elaw » Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:06 pm

Just for the record, I wish to state that I may have underestimated the threat to safety that can result from toilet problems: http://www.upi.com/Odd_News/2016/11/29/8-foot-venomous-cobra-found-in-apartments-toilet-bowl/1701480426865/
HR consultant, Yoyodyne Propulsion Systems, Inc.

User avatar
3WE
Posts: 4161
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2008 2:37 pm
Location: Flyover, America

Re: so America...

Postby 3WE » Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:50 pm

Gabriel wrote:I do believe that a plane based on the 777 would be better, cheaper to buy and cheaper to operate.


You really do spend too much time playing aviation consultant with Evan.

Cheaper, yeah, maybe a few less hassles since it is indeed the biggest bestest new airplane around- no one would really argue against that.

But there's just something about 4 engines...ability to maintain altitude above the isotope-laden air...if an engine goes...if an engine is hit by bullets from a machine gun...or maybe just two lowly geese and El Presidente Don Juan está nadando en el río.
Commercial Pilot, Vandelay Industries, Inc., Plant Nutrient Division.


Return to “Aviation Discussion Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest