Must read for AD.Info Wonks

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supersean
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Must read for AD.Info Wonks

Postby supersean » Tue Aug 04, 2009 9:11 pm

Did the balance of power shift in the last 10 years or is this just to drum up FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt)?

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG888.pdf
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Lancer
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Re: Must read for AD.Info Wonks

Postby Lancer » Thu Nov 05, 2009 7:43 pm

An executive summary would be nice.
Lance.

PurduePilot
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Re: Must read for AD.Info Wonks

Postby PurduePilot » Thu Nov 05, 2009 7:58 pm

The military balance across the Taiwan Strait is changing in ways that
make more complex both the set of operational challenges associated
with defending Taiwan against a possible Chinese attack and the stra-
tegic imperative of shaping Chinese behavior so that no such attack
ever occurs.
This report documents a follow-on effort to one published in 2000
(Shlapak, Orletsky, and Wilson, 2000), reassessing and expanding that
earlier study’s snapshot of the cross-strait balance, looking ahead to the
2010–2015 period. As in the 2000 study, we employed a mix of theater-
level combat modeling, simpler mathematical models, historical analy-
sis, interviews with experts, and qualitative judgment. The conclusions
of the present work have proven to be substantially less optimistic for
the Taiwan (and U.S.) side.

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supersean
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Re: Must read for AD.Info Wonks

Postby supersean » Thu Nov 05, 2009 8:13 pm

It was a great read and interesting insight into what is perceived to be the next major conflict. Iran does not really count because the west will clean up house there in a matter of weeks and be greeted in the streets as liberators!
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Marc 1
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Re: Must read for AD.Info Wonks

Postby Marc 1 » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:59 am

That report has quite a few assumptions for it to read so badly - the holes in the swiss cheese really would have to line up for this to become a likely scenario. RAND have underestimated some US capabilities and overestimated some Sino capabilities and well as ignored certain other US strike methods that would likely nullify a Chinese advantage.

BUT, it is a good way of drawing people's attention to the fact that the Chinese are increasing in strength and capability and we may soon (a decade or more) be saying that for the Chinese to LOSE, in this scenario, the holes in the swiss cheese would have to line up.

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supersean
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Re: Must read for AD.Info Wonks

Postby supersean » Thu Nov 12, 2009 5:48 pm

That report has quite a few assumptions for it to read so badly -
The structure of the paper itself could be improved but the thesis and analysis provided is very much relevant to the future of our military planning, acquisitions, and strategy. Regarding the assumptions could you be more specific as to what are off target?
RAND have underestimated some US capabilities and overestimated some Sino capabilities and well as ignored certain other US strike methods that would likely nullify a Chinese advantage.
How so?? I thought RAND did a pretty good job of outlining the assets and capabilities for all players involved available in theater. Obviously there are skunk works and black ops on both sides that have not been included but overall given the fact this is a public policy paper I think it does a pretty good job. I am confident that there is a more detailed version of this analysis that has not been made public.

lets expand this thread to build up the analysis of this subject further to make it a more relevant analysis with what information is available to us.
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