A380 troubles, the latest news...

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flyboy2548m
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Re: A380 troubles, the latest news...

Postby flyboy2548m » Fri Jun 05, 2015 2:59 pm

J wrote:Implications Of A United Airlines A380 Superjumbo Order

There has been a rumor that has come from reliable sources at United Airlines that states the company is in intermediate stages in ordering the Airbus A380 - the world's largest passenger aircraft...


What reliable source, Auntie Millicent on a park bench?
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J
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Re: A380 troubles, the latest news...

Postby J » Sun Jan 03, 2016 5:24 pm


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Re: A380 troubles, the latest news...

Postby reubee » Tue Mar 01, 2016 11:44 am

There will be 4 Emirates A380 on the ground at AKL tomorrow. One of which is subbing in for a 777-200Lr on the inaugural DXB-AKL non stop. That will be a good flight to be down the back on, reduced load so good chance for a row of 3 or 4 to oneself, just like the old days.
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Re: A380 troubles, the latest news...

Postby reubee » Sat Mar 05, 2016 12:38 am

Avert your eyes, or for your viewing please

EmiratesAucklandA380s.jpg
EmiratesAucklandA380s.jpg (221.3 KiB) Viewed 506 times
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Re: A380 troubles, the latest news...

Postby J » Mon Jun 06, 2016 3:46 pm

Airbus A380: The Final Countdown

Last week saw an astonishing moment of frankness from the A380’s biggest customer. Tim Clark, President of Emirates, told Bloomberg that not only had discussions on a new re-engined A380neo version of Airbus’s 525-seat jet “kind of lapsed,” but that his “main concern is that they stop producing the plane.”

This was the first intimation that sudden death is a possibility for the troubled super jumbo. And the numbers highlight this risk.

It has been years since there was any significant commercial demand for the A380, aside from Emirates steadily growing its position to 142 orders. In April, Airbus executives admitted that output in 2017 could be as low as 20 aircraft. This is far below the 30 aircraft needed for annual recurring breakeven (this excludes program nonrecurring costs; there is no way to even begin to recover the $25-30 billion or so invested in the development of this aircraft).

Plummeting output reflects a creaky order book. Emirates still has 65 outstanding orders, on top of the 77 jets it has already taken. In theory, there are another 67 A380 orders on backlog. But many of the remaining jets have little or no chance of being delivered. Qantas’s remaining eight planes have been deferred indefinitely. Ten “undisclosed customer” orders are basically dead. Virgin Atlantic’s ever-deferred order for six is basically dead too. Amedeo, a speculative and poorly conceived leasing venture, will not take any of its 20 orders.

All told, we can only identify 18 truly firm non-Emirates A380 orders on backlog. Clearly, Emirates will need to do the heavy lifting in terms of line program sustainment.

Emirates took its first A380 in 2008, with 72 delivered through the end of 2015. That’s an average of nine per year. But as demand elsewhere has vanished, Emirates has been forced to ramp up its intake. In 2015, Emirates took 14 of the 27 A380s delivered.

How long can this keep up? Emirates has just reported its first annual sales decline in a decade. Its load factor dropped 3.1 points to 76.5%. Its yield fell 10%. Ramping up capacity hardly seems like the right move now.

Meanwhile, Emirates has ordered 150 Boeing 777-9Xs, with deliveries starting in 2020. This jet has the same range as the A380, more belly cargo, just 25% fewer seats (the discounted ones, of course) and has two fewer engines. They’re more modern engines, too

Thus, the question becomes, how long is Airbus willing to lose money, particularly when there’s no doubt about the ultimate outcome? Assuming that next year’s rate of 20 isn’t too ruinous, and assuming that Emirates can keep taking 14 per year (despite declining traffic growth rates and falling load factors), that means Airbus can sustain about three more years of production (14 Emirates planes per year, plus six for other customers). But then again, since Airbus is losing money on all of these planes, Tim Clark is correct to worry that Airbus could simply end the program at any time.

Teal Group has always provided the most pessimistic A380 forecast. But it turns out we may have been much more optimistic than reality.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardaboulafia/2016/06/06/airbus-a380-the-final-countdown/#591c4f4761b6

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Re: A380 troubles, the latest news...

Postby Gabriel » Mon Jun 06, 2016 4:31 pm

In the meantime... the 747-8 has a backlog of fewer than 20 orders.

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Re: A380 troubles, the latest news...

Postby flyboy2548m » Mon Jun 06, 2016 4:55 pm

Gabriel wrote:In the meantime... the 747-8 has a backlog of fewer than 20 orders.


The difference is that Boeing never expected the -8 to sell in huge numbers.
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Re: A380 troubles, the latest news...

Postby J » Fri Aug 05, 2016 3:24 pm

Here are a couple of articles showing both manufacturers are struggling to sell their 4-engine aircraft:

Airbus A380 Customer Qantas Doesn’t Want the Last Eight on Order
Excerpt:
Qantas Airways Ltd. said it doesn’t want the remaining eight A380s it still has on order because the dozen it operates now are sufficient to meet demand, further dimming future sales prospects for the largest passenger plane that’s struggled to find buyers.

“Our intention is that we’re not taking those aircraft,” Qantas Chief Executive Officer Alan Joyce said Friday at an airline conference in Brisbane, Australia.

Qantas was one of the original operators of the A380 and looked to become one of the biggest buyers of the double-decker built by Airbus Group SE. Joyce has pushed back delivery of the remaining planes for about two years now, joining customers including Virgin Atlantic Ltd. that haven’t outright canceled orders but are unlikely ever to have them fulfilled. That leaves Emirates of Dubai as the one committed buyer of the aircraft.
. . .
Airbus announced a drastic cut in production last month of the flagship superjumbo, saying it would build about 12 of the planes annually compared with close to 30 in recent years. The number of aircraft Joyce said he needs is in line with most other operators of the model, including Deutsche Lufthansa AG and British Airways. Emirates’ orders account for close to 50 percent of the model’s backlog.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-05/airbus-a380-customer-qantas-doesn-t-want-the-last-eight-on-order


Boeing may kill the 747 as widebody aircraft fall from favor; Airbus A380 also at risk
Excerpt:
According to Boeing, the new international version of the 747, the 747-8I, is 30% quieter, 16% more fuel efficient, and offers 13% lower seat costs per mile. The problem, for Boeing, is that not enough customers are actually ordering the 747-8. The company has therefore warned that “If we are unable to obtain sufficient orders and/or market, production and other risks cannot be mitigated, we could record additional losses that may be material, and it is reasonably possible that we could decide to end production of the 747.”
. . .
While Boeing spent much less on their 747-8 extension than Airbus invested in the enormous A380, neither plane may be very profitable. That’s particularly true for Airbus, which is expected to eat the estimated $25 billion it cost to build the A380 in the first place.
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/232709-boeing-may-kill-the-747-as-widebody-aircraft-fall-from-favor-airbus-a380-also-at-risk

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Re: A380 troubles, the latest news...

Postby J » Fri Sep 23, 2016 5:33 pm

Now Comes Hawaiian Airlines:

Excerpt:
In an interview with Bloomberg's Christopher Jasper, Hawaiian Airlines CEO Mark Dunkerley said his airline is seriously considering the Airbus A380 double-decker jet as a possible addition to the company's fleet.

According to Bloomberg, Hawaiian is considering adding the superjumbo for routes from Honolulu to cities such as Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Tokyo. Hawaiian currently services these cities with its fleet of Airbus A330 and Boeing 767 wide-body jets.

However, Dunkerley added that his airline is still not fully convinced by the A380's business case.

American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines have all declined to take on the massive airliner.


http://www.businessinsider.com/airbus-a380-american-airline-hawaiian-2016-9

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Re: A380 troubles, the latest news...

Postby J » Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:46 pm

It has to be pretty discouraging for Airbus.

Exclusive: Airbus may ditch A380's grand staircase as sales tumble

Airbus is considering doing away with one of the hallmarks of its A380 superjumbo, a "grand staircase" echoing the era of cruise ships, as it looks to revive sales of the world's largest airliner, industry sources said.

The idea of a slimmed down staircase, as well as adding fuel-saving wingtips, is aimed at lowering the huge double-decker's operating costs and boosting its fuel efficiency.

The provisionally dubbed A380-Plus makeover would add 40-50 seats to increase the standard interior's capacity to more than 600 seats which would help airlines reduce their costs per passenger.

To make room for those extra passengers, the A380 would do away with the double staircase at the front of the plane in favor of something more compact. The narrower spiral staircase at the back would also be modified.
* * *
To help on the A380, the addition of vertical wingtips, more typically seen on smaller narrow-body jets, would cut fuel consumption by reducing drag.

The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the makeover would improve fuel efficiency by around two percent.
They said the changes may also be available as retrofits to existing A380s, but that this had not yet been decided.

The design changes would add about three tonnes to the A380's maximum take-off weight, leaving more room for payload or fuel.

Airbus recently shelved plans for a bolder upgrade of the A380 involving new engines due to cost, and announced plans to cut output to one a month due to poor sales.

Beyond the new tweaks, the health of the program depends on getting costs low enough so that Airbus can keep output ticking over at 12 a year without losing money, while it waits for what it hopes will be a rise in demand as air travel grows.

"The time will come for the A380," Airbus sales chief John Leahy told the ISTAT Americas air finance conference this week.
Airbus was due to unveil a dedicated online booking system for A380 flights at a Berlin show on Wednesday.

The European company's U.S. rival Boeing argues the time for very large four-engined jets, such as the A380 and its own slow-selling 747-8, is ending.

In the short term, Airbus faces another challenge: helping investors find homes for five A380s due to be released by Singapore Airlines after their lease expires.

So far there is no second-hand market for the jets, which entered service in 2007, and several ISTAT delegates said it would not be easy to find takers due in part to the high costs of converting the interiors to suit the needs of a new airline


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-a-idUSKBN16F0YR
Correct:
United looking at second-hand aircraft, rules out A380

United Continental Holdings UAKL.N is interested in buying second-hand aircraft as they are released to the market when leases expire, Chief Finance Director Andrew Levy said on Tuesday.

Speaking at the ISTAT Americas air finance conference, he also ruled out United, which recently retired its Boeing 747 jumbo jets, buying any more aircraft in that category for the world's largest four-engined jets.

United, the largest U.S. carrier by traffic, has been tipped in the past as a potential buyer for the Airbus A380 superjumbo.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-united-airlines-idUSKBN16E2P2

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Re: A380 troubles, the latest news...

Postby J » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:46 pm

Recent news coverage suggests Emirates is toying with the idea of a 20-plane order and that Airbus will slow production if they dohn't see any new orders soon.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-07/emirates-said-in-talks-over-deal-for-20-airbus-a380-superjumbos

Then there is this.

A380 door deactivation could raise seat-count
Airbus is looking at deactivation of an upper deck exit door on the A380 as part of measures to increase the type's accommodation.

The airframer has previously outlined a number of modifications to raise the seat-count of the double-deck type.

But chief operating officer for customers John Leahy disclosed during a briefing in Toulouse that Airbus is studying deactivation of the aft doors on the upper deck.

The A380 upper deck has three pairs of exit doors while the lower deck has five.

Airbus estimates that the deactivation could enable it to install eight additional seats

This project development study would complement other modifications including installation of new forward and aft stairs, 11-abreast economy seating, elimination of upper-deck sidewalls, and a combined crew rest.

Evacuation tests during the aircraft's development, with its total of eight pairs of doors, allowed the A380 to be certified for 853 passengers.

With Photographs
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/a380-door-deactivation-could-raise-seat-count-438102/

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Re: A380 troubles, the latest news...

Postby J » Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:39 pm

Breaker's Yard Beckons for Airbus A380 If New Homes Aren't Found
Excerpt:

Airbus SE’s A380 superjumbo faces the ignominy of being broken up for spare parts if second-hand operators for the oldest jets can’t be found in coming months.

The double-deckers could be “parted out” to recover engines and other spares worth at least $100 million per plane, according to German fund manager Dr. Peters, which owns four A380s due to be returned between October and June by Singapore Airlines Ltd. following the expiry of 10-year lease deals.

At the same time, talks are continuing with six potential operators of the jets, including an Asian low-cost airline that would fly them in a 700-seat single-class layout, Chief Executive Officer Anselm Gehling said in an interview. Prospective users also include carriers in the U.S., which has so far eschewed the model, and Europe, where British Airways owner IAG SA is continuing to evaluate deploying used A380s at airlines within the group, he said.

* * * *
For investors, parting out A380s -- which had an original list price of about $250 million when they were bought, before discounts -- should offer a decent return, Gehling said. After 10 years, they’d have typically had back 65 to 70 percent of their outlay, and would need $55 million to $60 million more now to break even, whereas an A380 could yield up to $120 million in components.

Singapore Airlines has orders for five more superjumbos which will maintain its fleet as its first planes come off lease. Germany’s WirtschaftsWoche news magazine reported earlier that Dr. Peters could opt to part out some of the returning aircraft.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-03/breaker-s-yard-beckons-for-airbus-a380-if-new-homes-aren-t-found


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