This is an odd one, for sure. I've watched the video several times now in hopes of getting a clearer view not of the aircraft's attitude but of control surface positioning, specifically if the elevators were ever deflected downwards. The video is not very clear but it does NOT appear that elevators ever went past neutral. It also appears that the nose started coming down four seconds after weight off wheels, which means it is likely that the controls were still in ground mode (I believe this is important, more on why in a second). The wheels come off the ground at 0:49 and the nose starts down at 0:53. Now, Airbus manuals state that controls transition to flight mode approximately five seconds after becoming airborne, so it is possible that they were in flight mode already, but...
But this: in my opinion, the only thing that makes sense here is that the stick was let go, either accidentally or, possibly, the pilot thought they were already in flight mode, so the airplane would hold the pitch attitude it was at when the stick was let go.
The "tailwind at rotation" seems an unlikely explanation to me. The conditions do not seem favorable to windshear of any kind. Advertised winds were either VRB04 or 270/6. It is true that the very concept of VRB04 suggests that the winds could have shifted but I don't see them shifting enough to cause this sort of mayhem. Notice also that in the video there is a clearly seen smoke stack from a nearby industrial facility and the smoke is rising straight up, suggesting there was no wind at all.
I suggest we wait until the FINAL REPORT.
Yes,
we should wait for the final report, but I feel like this theory really fits.
It’s great to look at the control surfaces, and all (as you and Bernt did) but, I’m not sere we can count on videos and our perspective to reliably track control surfaces.
IMOAHO, the nose over looks like it came from an input.
No major questions, I transcribed your comment hoping to stir BS.
Commercial Pilot, Vandelay Industries, Inc., Plant Nutrient Division.
