DHL 734 victim of NOTAM

[elaw]

(maybe) https://avherald.com/h?article=520c0e2b&opt=0

[3WE]

Quote=EVan

Cowboy, monkey, improvisational, unstabilized approach gate criteria.

[Gabriel]

Quote = 3we

Quote=Gabe

Stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall.

Fixed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXyXgSu5CBE&t=1s

[3WE]

Quote=Gabe

Stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall.

Fact: Gabriel is obsessed with stalls.

Fact: A pitch up and wing drop are observed, consistent with a [see footnote] relentless pull up.

Factor: AvHearaldie gossip suggests the airplane was very fast and roughly on the glide slope.

Therefore, I don’t think a stall is really THE cause here.

I am not_Evan, so I will refrain from suggesting improvisational, cowboy-monkey unstabilized approach gate was THE cause, but unstabilized-for-unknown-reasons seems a big part.

We do need additional data from the flight recorders.

Expletive -laden flame if someone says “wait for the final report”.

Footnote: Acknowledging that a last second, oh-shit, panic pull up could be part of the sequence.

[elaw]

Which makes much sense if one of the scenarios suggested by the NOTAM is the case, namely that the ILS was functioning but unreliable.

So they could have had the most stabilized approach ever, but realized at the last minute that said approach was leading them to a location that was not_a runway. They get startled by this, pull up relentlessly, and end up taking a one-way trip to stallsville.

[3WE]

***So they could have had the most stabilized approach ever***

Discussion mode:

We still have indications of a pretty fast approach, which I can’t really blame on a goofy glide slope.

Shoulder shrug emoji.

[elaw]

What? 3 degrees is 3 degrees, whether you're going 80 or 250 knots.

[elaw]

https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comme ... thuania_a/

[3WE]

Quote=Mr. Snappy

Is not ILS. Superior Russian ILS perform perfectly.

Inferior US 737MX and inferior not_CCC Pilot cause crash.

Da.

[3WE]

What? 3 degrees is 3 degrees, whether you're going 80 or 250 knots.

That’s sort of my point (or the orthogonal opposite)

It SEEMS like they flew an APPROXIMATE 3 degree approach. WHICH I ACKNOWLEDGE MIGHT HAVE BEEN VARYING FROM 2 to 4 degrees.

BUT YOU SHOULD STILL BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO YOUR TARGET APPROACH SPEED, NOT 50 KTS TOO FAST.

CAPS ARE EMPHASIS, not shouting.

/probing discussion

[elaw]

Wow were they really 50 knots fast at that point? That much overspeed that late in the approach is impressive... and not in a good way.

[3WE]

Wow were they really 50 knots fast at that point?

The comments on AvHeraldie about ADSB data suggest really fast speeds around 200 through much of the approach.

Of course that doesn’t mean they chopped the power, stuck everything into the airstream and found themselves dropping like a rock, out of airspeed and altitude and a lacking fast spooling engine on a light plane, altogether, there at the end.

…and a wonky ILS signal giving horribly-timed high indications would certainly contribute (and potentially be THE final straw).

Repeating: I do not default to EVan (stupid pilots); however a not_stabilized approach seems to be a big factor.

ANOTHER angle: It looks reasonably visual there at the end, so did something break?

We need to wait for the final report, even though that’s not_why we have this forum.

[Gabriel]

Wow were they really 50 knots fast at that point?

The comments on AvHeraldie about ADSB data suggest really fast speeds around 200 through much of the approach.

However the AvHerald article itself says "last ADS-B position suggesting a flight level 007 thus indicates at 1020 hPa a height of 253 feet when the aircraft on a 3 degree glidepath should be at a height of 336 feet. The ADS-B data suggest an average rate of descent of 972fpm at an average speed of 149 knots over ground between 03:27:29Z and 03:28:06Z."

That doesn't contradict your statement, or the comments on Av Herald.

In addition, in the videos that are captured from further away I think it i quite clear that the descent steepens in the last few seconds (not just immediately before the crash).

Trying to connect the dots...

A possible scenario (not that I have high confidence in it) is that the were coming in too fast indeed, manually idled the throttles and completed the landing configuration, point at switch even in a 3-degrees descent the airplane would be losing speed quickly, they got distracted (maybe due to the wrong tower frequency -which we know was redback incorrectly and not corrected by the approach controller- and their failure to contact them and not having a landing clearance), and at that rate of deceleration the distraction caused that they went from too fast to too slow without realizing, reaching stickshaker, and then reacting incorrectly to it (although a correct reaction may still not have saved them at that point, but it may have meant a more controlled crash, which may or may not have been better, too many variables in this case).

We need to wait for the final report, even though that’s not_why we have this forum.

Well, we need at least the preliminary report which hopefully will include some insights from the radar readout, ILS calibration, CVR and FDR.

AVH: On Nov 26th 2024 Lithuania's Ministry of Justice reported cockpit voice and flight data recorders have been removed from the wreckage at about 11:30am (09:30Z) Nov 26th 2024.

[elaw]

And if I understand correctly, two crew members also survived? That's a good thing not just because it's a good thing, but it enables us to get their version of what happened.

[3WE]

1. That doesn't contradict your statement, or the comments on Av Herald.

2. Trying to connect the dots...[blah blah blah]

1. No that doesn’t contradict my statement, but flyboy-obscure-god forbid you acknowledge my point that there are indications that the approach was way (not just slightly) unstabilized.

2. Again, I would hate for you to acknowledge that I ALREADY said pretty much the same thing, albeit more briefly…it is very plausible to be screaming in, pull the power and dump all sorts of draggy things and burn all your extra airspeed and altitude making a last-second, crisp pull up problematic.

Eric’s points are valid too- if the glide slope is giving you false high indications…not _helpful.

Lots of questions on this one.

[Not_Karl]

I am not_Evan, so I will refrain from suggesting a typical antique 737 hardover.

Fixed.

Expletive -laden flame if someone says “wait for the final report”.

no

We need to wait for the final report

yes

[Gabriel]

but flyboy-obscure-god forbid you acknowledge my point that there are indications that the approach was way (not just slightly) unstabilized.

Again, I would hate for you to acknowledge that I ALREADY said pretty much the same thing, albeit more briefly…

Ok, acknowledged. We are saying the same thing and you said it firster and brieflier.

[3WE]

but flyboy-obscure-god forbid you acknowledge my point that there are indications that the approach was way (not just slightly) unstabilized.

Again, I would hate for you to acknowledge that I ALREADY said pretty much the same thing, albeit more briefly…

Ok, acknowledged. We are saying the same thing and you said it firster and brieflier and glossing over details and variants.

Fixed.

[3WE]

There is discussion, there, around uncertainty of what the plane does in the final seconds.

I concur that I can’t make much of the videos.

[elaw]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcywlkKcqak

[elaw]

If the wonky-ILS and bomb theories don't float your boat (or fly your plane?), here's another theory: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXMdkYFhld8

[3WE]

YouTubers noted.

So many questions, so few final reports.

I haven’t studied this in-depth, but nasty:30 o,clock overnight fatigue, 500 ft ceiling, a rushed-fast-‘diving’ approach and brief, fuzzy inattention could have resulted in, oh shit, there’s the[sound of impact]

Dan JUAN’s slat actuator was interesting.

[Not_Karl]

I haven’t studied this in-depth, but lack of appropriate guarded switches could have resulted in, oh shit, there’s the[sound of impact]

Fixed. They're Not_only goood for pressurization shenanigans, you know.
Of course, stupid stubborn them oppose our brilliant solutions and cast doubt on our superior intelligence, knowledge and judgement .

[3WE]

I haven’t studied this in-depth, but lack of appropriate guarded switches could have resulted in, oh shit, there’s the[sound of impact]

Fixed. They're Not_only goood for pressurization shenanigans, you know.
Of course, stupid stubborn them oppose our brilliant solutions and cast doubt on our superior intelligence, knowledge and judgement .

I hope you are not_making a snide, but somewhat-accurate reference to there…

[Not_Karl]

I hope you are not_making a snide, but somewhat-accurate reference to there…

I would never do such thing :angel_emoji: