Indonesian 737 down?

[monchavo]

"lost contact"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -indonesia

[Gabriel]

Yes, crashed into the water, most likely no survivors.

http://avherald.com/h?article=4e18553c&opt=0

[tds]

Not much choice besides air to get around in the Indonesian archipelago, but I can't say I'd relish the prospect.

[3WE]

Wanton speculation:

Contributing: Weather (some depicted on radar)...

Contributing: Fouls up instrument(s) and/or messes up airplane a bit.

UAS?

Primary: Poorly trained, (or even not-quite-legal) pilots mishandle event.

Relentless pull up: 50:50 Odds.

Plane crashes.

Final cause: Pilot error.

There: Evan has a procedure-deviation frenzy, citing culture and the need for oversight, and bashes the 737 as obsolete.

Footnote: Not_a Regional Jet.

[flyboy2548m]

Thank Éiru it wasn't a Max!

[3WE]

Thank ERAU it wasn't a Max!

More aviational...

[KPryor]

CVR and FDR, along with human and aircraft debris found in 75 feet of water.

[KPryor]

CVR and FDR, along with human and aircraft debris found in 75 feet of water.
https://www.npr.org/2021/01/10/95539972 ... -survivors

[monchavo]

anyone care to speculate?

[Gabriel]

anyone care to speculate?

So hard to say with so little info. What we know so far is that everything looked normal until the plane suddenly changed heading and then fell like hell.

Wild speculation with 0.05% confidence starts here.
- It seems too sudden even for an intentional act, unless the pilot decided to roll inverted and dive by "pulling up".
- I don't think that it was a total breakup either because the speed seems to high for just debris floating down and because the ADS-B kept broadcasting almost until the end at least.
- It might have been some catastrophic technical fault, like a reverser deployment (Lauda style) or like a surface control or tail plane failure (like AA A300 out of JFK) that sent the plane uncontrollably down.
- My favorite: Pilot disorientation and loss of control, with or without the help of some mild technical issue that should have been controllable (like an airspeed disagree, an AP disconnect, or a trim runaway). Reference: Air France 447, Atlas 767 in Houston, FlyDubai 981.
- Meteorite strike unlikely.

[3WE]

anyone care to speculate?

My favorite: Pilot disorientation and loss of control, with or without the help of some mild technical issue that should have been controllable (like an airspeed disagree, an AP disconnect, or a trim runaway).

Am I on some sort of ignore feature?

[Not_Karl]

An Argentinian newspaper mentioned the age of the plane (26.7 years) on the first sentence of its article, so I assume it simply fell due to old age.

Am I on some sort of ignore feature?

Here? I do Not_know. There? Probably on at least 3WE different ignore lists.

[Gabriel]

anyone care to speculate?

My favorite: Pilot disorientation and loss of control, with or without the help of some mild technical issue that should have been controllable (like an airspeed disagree, an AP disconnect, or a trim runaway).

Am I on some sort of ignore feature?

Not on mine. Your similar speculation was duly noted. Hope you don't charge me with copyright infringement.

[Gabriel]

- Meteorite strike unlikely.

Although it fits nicely all the facts known so far, I should add.

[3WE]

- Meteorite strike unlikely.

Although it fits nicely all the facts known so far, I should add.

As does “Other-than-Western safety culture and oversight.”

[Gabriel]

- Meteorite strike unlikely.

Although it fits nicely all the facts known so far, I should add.

As does “Other-than-Western safety culture and oversight.”

Indeed,

[monchavo]

An Argentinian newspaper mentioned the age of the plane (26.7 years) on the first sentence of its article, so I assume it simply fell due to old age.

Am I on some sort of ignore feature?

Here? I do Not_know. There? Probably on at least 3WE different ignore lists.

I think we need to remember that the general public associates the age of a item with its reliability, which is why many commentators will lead with that interesting factoid.

[Gabriel]

Another (or the same?) Argie newspaper made a full article explaining how this new accident leaves Boeing again under scrutiny after the 2 fatal MAX crashes, without mentioning ONCE that this 737 was not a MAX.

[Not_Karl]

Another (or the same?) Argie newspaper made a full article explaining how this new accident leaves Boeing again under scrutiny after the 2 fatal MAX crashes, without mentioning ONCE that this 737 was not a MAX.

So: old aeroplanies in general crash, new Boeing aeroplanies crash... They should tell us what is the safe age for aeroplanies .

Also: if there are two accidents with the same manufacturer in close proximity, they start publishing every little mishap with aeroplanies of said manufacturer (even things unrelated to the aeroplanie maker, like strong turbulence, an airport vehicle crashing into them, etc) titling them "Another accident/incident/problem with a/n Boeing/Airbus" .

[Not_Karl]

AvieHeraldie:

In the evening of Jan 12th 2021 the Ministry of Transport reported one of the black boxes was recovered by Navy divers and taken ashore. The black box was subsequently identified as the flight data recorder. The read out of the FDR is expected to take between 2 and 5 days.

[Not_Karl]

AvieHeraldie:

On Jan 15th 2021 the KNKT reported that the data of the FDR have been successfully downloaded, all 330 parameters recorded are in good condition and are currently being analyzed.

On Jan 15th 2021 the Indonesian Navy reported that the pinger of the CVR and parts of the housing were found and recovered, however, the CVR's memory unit is still missing. The search for the memory unit is still ongoing.
On Jan 17th 2021 the Navy reported that the remotely controlled vehicle (ROV) has again been deployed to search for the memory unit of the CVR, which is suspected to be buried underneath other debris of the aircraft.

[monchavo]

AvieHeraldie:

On Jan 15th 2021 the KNKT reported that the data of the FDR have been successfully downloaded, all 330 parameters recorded are in good condition and are currently being analyzed.

On Jan 15th 2021 the Indonesian Navy reported that the pinger of the CVR and parts of the housing were found and recovered, however, the CVR's memory unit is still missing. The search for the memory unit is still ongoing.
On Jan 17th 2021 the Navy reported that the remotely controlled vehicle (ROV) has again been deployed to search for the memory unit of the CVR, which is suspected to be buried underneath other debris of the aircraft.

It is quite vexing that the memory unit has become detached from the pinger. I note the photographs of the base of the unit mashed up to crap and circuit boards shown within, however seeing as the material appears to be concentrated in a relatively small area, and at a fairly shallow depth, recovery of all the airframe and associated parts would seem to be feasible - even if finding the CVR in the mud takes months?

[3WE]

What are they missing (in a physical sense)?

A tiny memory chip, a thumb drive, a 10-cm hardened metal crash-proof container?

[Gabriel]

What are they missing (in a physical sense)?

A tiny memory chip, a thumb drive, a 10-cm hardened metal crash-proof container?

The recovered chassis seems to be made of a relatively thin metal sheet (not super crash resistance). Also it is a slim box (shallow depth).


http://avherald.com/img/sriwijaya_b735_ ... 0109_6.jpg


Given that, I expect that the memory unit will be a really ruggedized part that sitting outside of that chassis.

I have no clue what model is the CVR that this plane had installed, but here you have an example of a CVR that seems to more or less fit the description above.
The memory module would be the orange bowling ball.

[Gabriel]

http://avherald.com/h?article=4e18553c&opt=0

On Jan 19th 2021 the KNKT reported that the FDR contained 330 parameters of a total of 18 flights. The KNKT have already developed a general picture of the accident, however, need further data from the cockpit voice recorder before publishing any information. Inspections of Boeing 737-300, 737-400 and 737-500 in Indonesia have been ordered.

So it was more than just pilot error....